1、Asia Pacific Equity Research07 August 2024J P M O R G A NASEAN TelcosThai telcos likely to continue seeing positive earnings revisions ASEAN TMTRanjan Sharma,CFA AC(65)6882-J.P.Morgan Securities Singapore Private LimitedSigrid Qiu(65)6882-J.P.Morgan Securities Singapore Private LimitedRitvik Agrawal

2、(91-22)6157-J.P.Morgan India Private Limited,J.P.Morgan Tower,Santacruz(E),Mumbai-400098,SEBI Registration:INH000001873,(91-22)6157-3000.Kae Pornpunnarath,CFA(66-2)684-JPMorgan Securities(Thailand)LimitedAnkur Rudra,CFA(65)6801-J.P.Morgan Securities Singapore Private LimitedFollowing 2Q24 results,we

3、 reiterate our OW ratings on TRUE and ADVANC.We anticipate continuing positive earnings revisions to drive material upside to the share price despite the outperformance-TRUE has outperformed MSCI EM by 90pp YTD,ADVANC by 9pp YTD.Our FY25E PAT forecasts for TRUE and ADVANC are 12%and 14%ahead of Bloo

4、mberg consensus,respectively.Our views are underpinned by a benign competitive environment,expectations of ARPU reflation,relatively strong cost controls,and financial leverage.We raise our PT for TRUE to THB12.6(27%potential upside)and ADVANC to THB295(23%potential upside).ADVANC guidance appears c

5、onservative.With its 2Q24,TRUE raised its FY24 service revenue growth guidance from 3-4%to 4-5%and EBITDA growth guidance from 9-11%to 12-14%.However,ADVANC kept its guidance unchanged despite operational performance being ahead of guidance:1H24 core service revenue growth of 18%compares to guidance

6、 of 13-15%;1H24 EBITDA growth of 21%compares to guidance of 14-16%.In our view,in an environment of benign competition and relatively strong cost control,we believe ADVANCs guidance is likely to be conservative.Thai telcos likely to see ARPU reflation despite tough macro.Since the beginning of the y