软件成本估算.pdf

1、SOFTWARE COST ESTIMATIONFINALLY BECOMING A TRUE PROFESSION!IT Confidence 2023OnlineHarold van HeeringenINTRODUCING MEDrs.Harold van Heeringen,(Veendam,the Netherlands)25 years experience in IT,20 years in software measurement and metrics.ISBSG Immediate Past President.IDC Metri Principal Consultant

2、and Practice Lead IT Intelligence services.NESMA board member International cooperation and partnerships.ICEAA Software Board member.COSMIC Dutch representative in the International Advisory Council(IAC).50 years young.Living in Veendam,the Netherlands.Married,3 children.Passions:playing speed chess

3、,skiing,travelling,fitness,mountain biking,playing padel.IT CONFIDENCE 2023 ONLINETODAYS TOPICSSoftware Cost Estimation Why bother?Looking back at the 2019 IT ConfidenceNesma+ICEAA started the ICEAA-Software SIGSoftware Cost Estimation CertificationISBSG data to support Software Cost EstimationQ&AFi

4、nal thoughtIT CONFIDENCE 2023 ONLINESoftware Cost Estimation Why bother?Source:https:/ CONFIDENCE,BEIJING(CHINA)SEPTEMBER 2017Source:CEBoK-S chapter 1 introductionSOME FUNIT CONFIDENCE 2023 ONLINEThe first 90 percent of the code accounts for the first 90 percent of the development time.The remaining

5、 10 percent of the code accounts for the other 90 percent of the development time.Tom Cargill,Bell LabsHofstadters Law:It always takes longer than you expect,even when you take into account Hofstadters Law.Douglas Hofstadter,Gdel,Escher,Bach:An Eternal Golden BraidWhat one programmer can do in one m

6、onth,two programmers can do in two months.Frederic Brooks The mythical man-monthESTIMATION MATURITY MODELIT CONFIDENCE 2023 ONLINEEstimation Bias Mitigation Begins at Level 2,Solid at Level 3Expert opinions,not based on data.Human bias:Likely to be inaccurate and lowParametric estimatesBased on size