亚开行:2024年亚洲发展展望报告(7月期)(英文版)(11页).pdf

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亚开行:2024年亚洲发展展望报告(7月期)(英文版)(11页).pdf

1、HIGHLIGHTS Growth in developing Asia accelerated in the first quarter of 2024 on resilient domestic demand and strong export growth,particularly in electronics.The regions growth forecast for 2024 is increased slightly to 5.0%,while the 2025 projection is maintained at 4.9%.East Asias 2024 growth pr

2、ojection is revised up to 4.6%on strong exports of semiconductors and other goods driven by the artificial intelligence boom,with the 2025 projection maintained at 4.2%.Despite some changes in individual economies,growth forecasts for Southeast Asia remain at 4.6%in 2024 and 4.7%in 2025,and for the

3、Pacific at 3.3%in 2024 and 4.0%in 2025.The growth forecast for South Asia remains steady at 6.3%for 2024,with the 2025 projection down marginally to 6.5%.The outlook for growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia is raised to 4.5%from 4.3%in 2024 and 5.1%from 5.0%in 2025.Headline inflation in developin

4、g Asia is now forecast to ease further from 3.3%last year to 2.9%this year,stabilizing at 3.0%in 2025.Interest rates in the United States and other advanced economies continue to shape the outlook,which is subject to several downside risks.Uncertainty on the United States election outcome,elevated g

5、eopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation,property market fragility in the Peoples Republic of China,and weather-related events could hurt growth.Meanwhile,La Nia is an upside risk due to expected higher rainfall and cooler temperatures.Recent DevelopmentsDeveloping Asias growth accelerated early

6、 this year,supported by a relatively stable global economy.The regions economy remained robust in the first quarter(Q1)of 2024,driven by strong export growth and solid domestic demand.Inflation continued to moderate toward pre-pandemic levels,mainly due to the lagged effects of monetary policy tight

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