硅谷银行（SVB）：2019年第二季度经济报告（英文版）（33页）.pdf

1、Quarterly Economic Report Inside views on economic and market factors affecting global markets and business health Q2 2019 0419-0016MS-033120 SVB Asset Management | Quarterly Economic Report Q2 20192 2 Quarterly Economic Report: Q2 2019 3 Thoughts From the Desk 4 Domestic Economy 11 Global Economy 1

2、7 Central Banks 23 Markets and Performance 0419-0016MS-033120 Thoughts From the Desk SVB Asset Management | Quarterly Economic Report Q2 20193 3 After a turbulent end to 2018, the first quarter of 2019 bounced back with financial conditions improving and volatility easing. Major US equity indices re

3、bounded from negative territory with an average return of almost 14 percent. Meanwhile, the yield curve compressed by 2027 bps beyond one year as the Fed shifted to a more dovish stance, forecasting no further rate increases in 2019 and one in 2020. However, market participants anticipate the next m

4、ove may be a rate cut as the economic outlook continues to be clouded by slower global growth, uncertainty about international trade and muted inflation. US growth in Q4 moderated as tailwinds of tax cuts have faded, and Q1 growth is expected to be lower due to the seasonal effects of weather, the g

5、overnment shutdown and uncertainty about trade policy. The bright spot of the US economy, the labor market, continues to be on firm footing. Inflation has been muted recently, trending slightly below the Feds target. Globally, economies continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace. Expectations are for

6、 economic activity to improve in the latter half of the year as policy uncertainties are clarified and accommodative monetary policies provide economic stimulus. Consumption continues to support the global economy despite ongoing trade discussions, which are expected to slow growth. As the year prog