1、?2023/9/2210102032?319002019?01020304050607080901001900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019?1?2?去?1?2?去?ESG+?45?20?务?-50%0%50%100%150%1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050!#$-150%-100%-50%0%50%1
2、00%150%1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050!#$-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050!#$1995-2050?务?1995-2050?务?1995-2050?务?研?BP?6?务?8.0%12.3%12.5%14.6%19.1%3.6%4.7%6.1%8.3%16.5%8.8%17.0%20.4%23.3%30.1%8.6%11.6%12.6%12.3%15.1%0
3、%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%19801990200020102020?务?研?IEA?7 7?2030?105?2020?1.6?1?77%?41%?2030?油?研?Wind?2.9?2.4?1.9?1.6?1.3?1.0?01234050100150200520102015202020252030?CO2/?2005?105?,?77%?,?17%?,?6%?,?41%?,?39%?,?10%?,?10%8 8?2023-2025?175?195?200GW?20%?2025?12.4%?9.0%?研?Wind?务?0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%05101
4、520253035201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E?-?%?-?%?9 9?研?1010?研?CNKI?Wind?/?油?油?6%11%16%21%26%31%36%20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?%?1111?务?1021?VS?GDP?010000200003000040000?研?Wind?12?12?1+X+Y?VS?10%?0%?1?X?Y?1313?1414?VS?VS?1?
5、AGC?2?-?-?68?3?-?模?-?研?CNKI?+?1516162023?9?26?Tuesday?1717?研?CNESA?2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E!#$%-&(GWh)1.17 1.76 3.87 14.49 21.47 34.50!#$%-)*(GWh)1.17 1.76 3.87 19.32 26.84 51.75!#$%-+(GWh)1.17 1.76 3.87 36.23 48.31 69.00!,#$%(GWh)1.011.053.394.756.739.41-./$-)*(GWh)2.18 2.81 7.27 24.07 33.57
6、61.16!01234.56-)*(GWh)3.28 6.09 13.35 37.42 71.00 132.16 1818?22?22?务?61%?研?务?9.5%29.5%61.0%6.7%31.6%61.7%78!,98:!;49%43%8%!#!,#?#1919?务?IRR?务?IRR?2000/1700/1400?/KWh?IRR?5.3%/5.5%/5.6%?务?/?IRR?5.8%/5.9%/6.1%?务?IRR?研?IRR?(?/W)3.63.73.83.94.04.14.2?h?12915.39%5.14%4.90%4.68%4.46%4.25%4.04%13916.27%6.