1、As we look forward to theFourth Peakof the year,BFCM/Holiday 2023,its tempting to think the work is almost done and youve almost reached the summit of this years journey.While there is some truth to that,heres what you need to understand to win Holiday 2023:The Black Friday peak within the yearly ma

2、rketing calendar is really better thought of asfour separate mini-peaks.Maximizing your Q4 outcome is contingent upon your ability to master each of the 4 mini-peaks within the 4th peak.2The Setup Over the course of this year,weve been closely tracking against one of the most important macro trends

3、within our broader data set of DTC Ecommerce brands.The data indicates that brands realized the value from their 2020 new customer growth over the course of 2021-2022,with flat new customer growth during that time period.3Or,to say it another way,brands filled their sponge full of new customers duri

4、ng 2020,and then squeezed the sponge over the course of 2021-2022,meaning revenue over that period was heavily propped up by Returning Customers.The big issue here:In Q1 2023,we saw the lowest YoY Growth in Returning customers weve seen in the past 4 years.Case in point,Q1 2023 is+5%YoY,while Q1 202

5、2 was+38%YoY.Meaning brands Existing Customer Rev base has fallen off of a cliff.4And we saw this trend continue through Q2 as well.So if Returning Customers are flat,any growth brands want to realize must come from their New Customer acquisition efforts.Fortunately,Q1 and Q2 of this year saw the st

6、rongest New Customer YoY growth quarters since 2020.This is a good indication that brands are setting themselves up well for Q4 by re-filling their sponge,but what does the opportunity for Q4 of this year actually look like?To answer this question,we looked through a few different lenses.5First,look