1、NATIONALINTELLIGENCECOUNCIL.?biggest game-changers during the last century.Individually and collectively over the next 15-20 years,leaders are likely to be crucial to how developments turn out,particularly in terms of ensuring a more positive outcome.As we have emphasized,todays trends appear to be

2、heading toward a potentially more fragmented and conflicted world over the next 15-20 years,but bad outcomes are not inevitable.International leadership and cooperation will be necessary to solve the global challenges and to understand the complexities surrounding them.This study is meant as an aid

3、in that process:by laying out some of the alternative possibilities we hope to help policymakers steer us toward positive solutions.This page left intentionally blank.Global Trends 2025:A Transformed World For sale by the Superintendent of Documents,US Government Printing Office Internet:bookstore.g

4、po.gov Phone:toll free(866)512-1800;DC area(202)512-1800;Fax:(202)512-2104;Mail:Stop IDCC,Washington DC 20402-0001 ISBN 978-0-16-081834-9 To view electronic version:www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html November 2008 NIC 2008-003 We prepared Global Trends 2025:A Transformed World to stimulate strate

5、gic thinking about the future by identifying key trends,the factors that drive them,wherethey seem to be headed,and how they might interact.It uses scenarios to illustrate some of the many ways in which the drivers examined in the study(e.g.,globalization,demography,the rise of new powers,the decay

6、of international institutions,climate change,and the geopolitics of energy)may interact to generate challenges and opportunities for future decisionmakers.The study as a whole is more a description of the factors likely to shape events than a prediction of what will actually happen.By examining a sm