国际货币基金组织（IMF）：2020年全球金融稳定报告（4月刊）（英文版）（43页）.pdf

1、CHAPTER 1 Global Financial Stability Overview: Markets in the Time of COVID-19 (Full Report to Follow in May 2020) International Monetary Fund | April 2020 i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Confidential FOREWORD The COVID-19 Crisis The COVID-19 pandemic poses unprecedented health, economic, and financial stabilit

2、y challenges. The first priority is, of course, to save lives. But the necessary containment measures to limit the spread of the virus are causing a dramatic decline in economic activity. As a result, in only three months, the 2020 outlook has shifted from expected growth of more than 3 percent glob

3、ally to a sharp contraction of negative 3 percentmuch worse than the output loss seen during the 200809 global financial crisis. The ultimate impact of the crisis on the global economy, as well as the timing of a recovery, is highly uncertain. This crisis presents a very serious threat to the stabil

4、ity of the global financial system. Following the COVID-19 outbreak, financial conditions tightened at unprecedented speed, exposing some “cracks” in global financial markets. Market volatility spiked and borrowing costs surged on expectations of widespread defaults. Signs of strain emerged in major

5、 funding markets, including the global US dollar funding market. Historically large capital outflows exacerbated domestic shocks in emerging market economies. These developments have raised the risk that the inability of borrowers to service their debts would put pressure on banks and cause credit m

6、arkets to freeze up. A prolonged period of dislocation in financial markets could trigger distress among financial institutions, which, in turn, could lead to a credit crunch for nonfinancial borrowers, further exacerbating the economic downturn. To safeguard economic and financial stability and to