瑞士宝盛（Julius Baer）：2023年中市场展望报告（英文版）（52页）.pdf

1、MARKET OUTLOOK Mid-Year 2023Marketing materialPublication date:15 June 2023,8:00 CETPlease find important legal information at the end of this document.Source:Bank Julius Baer&Co.Ltd.(Julius Baer),unless explicitly stated otherwise.3 EditorialDear Reader,The year of the cool-down,as we labelled 2023

2、 in our previous outlook,continues but not for invest-ors.Geopolitical tensions,with US-China relations at the centre of the debate,as well as discussions about peak interest rates in the US,a potential default by the US government,the rise of artificial intelligence as an investment topic,and a ban

3、king turmoil that originated in the US but is also taking its toll in Switzerland have been keeping investors on their toes.Meanwhile,on the macroeconomic front,inflation figures and economic momentum have proved to be stickier than expected.The current cycle is unusual in that central banks are tig

4、htening vigorously in response to supply shocks,but there has been no private sector boom.This and the absence of major imbalances have made the economy much less sensitive to interest rates than expected.Still,the reverberations of central banks decision to tighten the money supply more than we had

5、 hoped will be felt well into 2024.As a result,we expect both infla-tion and growth,especially in the US,to slow more than we had forecast at the beginning of the year.Taking the above into consideration,some challeng-ing months lie ahead.However,difficult times also tend to offer many opportunities

6、 for those who are prepared.Hence,we remain fully invested for now,with our investment strategy focused on quality across all asset classes.This Market Outlook publication is designed to help you navigate the investment environment that we expect to prevail for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024.We