韩国央行：2026韩国经济展望报告（5月版）（英文版）（66页）.pdf

1、Korea Economic Outlook2026.5.ISSN 2983-2373Korea Economic Outlook2026.5.Korea Economic Outlook Headwinds from the Middle East,Tailwinds from Chips 2026.5.This report is the English version of the“Korea Economic Outlook”published on June 12,2026.Please contact the Research Department at the email add

2、ress below if you have any questions regarding the contents or would like to request permission in advance for reproducing or copying the contents of this report for commercial purposes.Please credit the source when quoting,reproducing,or copying the contents of this report for non-commercial purpos

3、es.Research Department,Business Cycle Team,Bank of Korea econtrendbok.or.kr Contents Key Assumptions of the Outlook Executive Summary Macroeconomic Conditions and Outlook 1.Domestic and International Economic Conditions Global Economy Koreas Economy Main Premises of the Baseline Outlook 2.Macroecono

4、mic Outlook for Korea Economic Growth Current Account Prices Employment 3.Risk Assessment Key Risks to the Outlook Distribution of Growth Projections by Market Participants Scenario Analysis 1 1 14 21 22 22 37 39 41 43 43 43 44 Power Supply and Demand Conditions in Taiwan Review of Global Crude Oil

5、Inventories After the Outbreak of the Middle East Conflict 7 12 25 33 The Impact of Disruptions in Construction Materials Supply and Higher Oil Prices on Construction Investment Comparison of Korea and Taiwans Exports of Semiconductors and Related Items Box Quarterly Forecasts for the One-Year-Ahead

6、 Horizon 47 i Key Assumptions of the Outlook Middle East Situation Following the U.S.Iran provisional ceasefire in early April,with negotiations on the end of hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz currently underway,military tensions in the region are assumed to ease gradually as the