1、MAPIC 2022European Retail Market Outlook 2023Tjard Martinus Head of Retail Research,EMEA Tjard.M2|2022 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Economy moves towards a mild recessionComposite PMI surveys point to a mild contraction in economic output that will last until Q1 2023Source:Oxford Ec

2、onomics(November 2022)8590951001051101151202017201820192020202120222023202420252026GDP index,real,LCU(2015=100)GDP index for the major European economies 2017-2026ForecastFranceGermanyEurozoneSpainUKItaly The economic environment is challenging with the cost of the Covid-19 pandemic,energy prices,in

3、flation and the cost of debt among the key factors affecting the growth outlook.Reaching gas storage targets have diminished the risks of hard rationing over the winter and a sharp slowdown in economic activity,notably for the industrial sector.The Eurozone economy is expected to fall by 1%from peak

4、 to trough this winter.Most European economies are expected to see a mild contraction in economic output that will last until the first half of 2023.While the current recession is cyclical,there are clear downside risks globally to the length and severity of the contraction.3|2022 Jones Lang LaSalle

5、 IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Economy entering the slowdown from a position of strengthThere is a relatively low risk the recession will prompt other crises and self-propagateSource:Refinitiv,JLL(November 2022)Risk-reducing factorsThere is a relatively low risk the recession will prompt other crises.K

6、ey contributing factors include:1.Labour market strength:Unemployment is expected to remain relatively low as various firms continue to recruit staff and offer higher wages.2.Household balance sheet stability:Pandemic savings have largely,but not entirely,been spent.Eurozone household savings are st