Christophe Lafougere - 未来关键趋势.pdf

1、Tel:+(33)4 50 40 24 00Global Dairy OutlookChristophe Lafougere,CEO Gira27thof March 2025 Gira+1.6%p.a expected by 2029 at world levelMilk collection:India will lead the gameGlobal Milk collection growth 2024e/2029fBubble size:Volume estimated in 2024 GiraOnly+0.8%p.a by 2029 without India and Pakist

2、anSmall/no growth to be expected in top exporting countriesMilk collection growth 2024e/2029f excl.IN&PKBubble size:Volume estimated in 2024EU potential worst-case scenario GiraCheese is clearly the winner but watch out whey consumptionWorld:Overview of Consumption Growth by Product(24e/29f)Global C

3、onsumption growth,excl.IN&PK 2024e-2029f GiraLess milk in the EU and NZ and increasing consumption means that dairy fat price should continue to remain high in the future GiraSolid Dairy Fats:potentially price could remain highSDF Market 2013-2024e-2029f GiraThe EU situation:less milk availableWe ne

4、ed to add more value to the milk we are processing Gira2025,potentially negative.Mainly the consequences of BTV3/12DE22%-1,7%FR16%-1,2%NL9%-1,2%PL9%+2,2%IT9%IE7%+2,5%DK4%Others24%Milk collection by EU countries in 2025Source:Gira GiraWith divergent trends:more east,less west.By 2029,Slowing down in

5、milk collection(best case scenario)Milk collection growth by EU countries(best case scenario)2024FRDKITNLIEDEPLOthers2029000 tonsSource:Gira2029:impact of environmental measures?GiraDrinking Milk23,246Cream2,810Yogurts7,746Solid Dairy fats2,318Cheese10,404SMP1,355WMP610-0.8%-0.6%-0.4%-0.2%0.0%0.2%0.

6、4%0.6%0.8%-600-500-400-300-200-1000100200300400CAGR 2024-2029Additional volume between 2024 and 2029(kt pw)Drinking milk and Yogurts seems to be again on a positive trendThere will be more cheese produced in Europe within 2029Dairy products production in Europe,2024-2029The size of the bubbles repre