布莱恩·厄内斯特首席经济学家动物蛋白CoBank演讲.pdf

1、Species#of PremisesTotal#of Birds%of totalBroiler(includes breeder/pullets)9114,040,5508.0%Turkey(includes breeding stock)47819,050,86010.9%Egg Laying Hens(includes breeders/pullets)142138,317,90079.1%Ducks(includes breeder stock431,316,3000.8%Backyard9201,048,2980.6%Commercial Game Birds341,030,140

2、0.6%Totals*1708174,804,048100%*Timeframe from Current Outbreak:February 8,2022Mid-June 2025Source:NCC,APHISHPAI Outbreak in PoultryImpacts to poultry sectors varried Broiler sector:impact has largely been trade related Egg sector:significant depopulation affecting Ability to produce,and to restock l

3、ayers Turkey sector is struggling on multiple fronts Production(both regular,and seasonal)and hampering export volumeFlock detections found in all 50 states in current outbreakHow is HPAI affecting US poultry export?0500100015002000250030003500400045005000Export LossU.S.Domestic Drop inValueExport L

4、ossU.S.Domestic Drop inValueLosses in Millions U$SBroilerTurkeyEggs20152022-23Source:estimates USAPEECBroiler exports to top destinations down,but not necessarily all HPAI related050010001500200025003000350040002019202020212022202320242025*U.S.Broiler Export Volume(in Million lbs.)AngolaCanadaChina(

5、Mainland)Hong KongMexicoCaribbeanUS table egg layer flock down-40 million from pre-HPAI levelSource:USDA From 2016-2020,the layer flock was generally in a rebuilding phase Growth was spurred by improved consumer interest,better margins,and Cage-free commitments The layer flock peaked In 2019,at more

6、 than 340 million COVID-19 issues provided a setback decreased food-service business dampened flock totals HPAI decimated flocks in 2022,rebuild through 24,now again decimated280285290295300305310315320325330JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecUS Table Egg-Typ