汇丰HSBC:全球科技硬件行业研究:代理型AI重塑服务器市场-260305(英文版)(18页).pdf

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汇丰HSBC:全球科技硬件行业研究:代理型AI重塑服务器市场-260305(英文版)(18页).pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Securities(Taiwan)Corporation Limited View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https:/ We forecast globa

2、l server shipments to grow 20%in 2026 and a further 21%in 2027,driven by unfulfilled server demand Strong CSP capex and CPU-GPU ratio rebalancing are the key catalysts for general server demand We prefer server names:Wiwynn,Aspeed,Unimicron,EMC,TUC,GUC and AMD Server shipment robust momentum in 2026

3、-27:We revise our baseline forecast for 2026 global server shipment to+20%y-o-y(vs.our previous forecast of+4%y-o-y),higher than market consensus of 10-15%y-o-y(Trendforce:13%y-o-y).We also introduce our 2027 shipment growth forecast of+21%y-o-y.This is although we believe underlying demand for serv

4、ers is pointing to even higher growth of 60%y-o-y,which we think will be constrained by key component shortages,limiting shipment growth to only 20-21%.The unfulfilled demand in 2026 for servers is likely to lead to a backlog,raising our conviction that global server shipment growth will sustain int

5、o 2028(see exhibit 6).The two main drivers of strong server demand are:Capex engines:Following recent earnings calls from major cloud service providers(CSPs),the HSBC house view is for higher CY2026 CSP capex of USD743bn(up 81%y-o-y).The major revisions are a result of robust guidance from Amazon,Go

6、ogle and Meta.The investment race prompted by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act(OBBBA)incentives is set to accelerate server spending in the next few years.On our estimates,c59%of total CSP capex will be allocated to servers in 2027,up from 35%in 2025.Nonetheless,we acknowledge that investors have conc

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