1、December 20222023 Outlook Recession,recovery,and reboundInvestment and Insurance Products:uNOT FDIC InsureduNO Bank GuaranteeuMAY Lose Value2|2023 OutlookRecession,recovery,and reboundDecember 2022As investors,we gladly close the books on 2022.Equity and bond benchmark indexes posted deeply negative

2、 returns this past year,a double dose of disappointment unmatched over the past 50 years.While not unusual for equities to routinely post difficult years,the bond market inked its second year in a row of negative returns,a feat not seen since 1958-59.Ironically,U.S.bonds have never posted three cons

3、ecutive years of negative returns,setting up for what we believe will be an exciting 2023 as interest rates peak and one we have already begun positioning for within our current guidance.“In investing,what is comfortable is rarely profitable.”Robert ArnottA fitting symmetry of a bull market that beg

4、an during the pandemic with a huge liquidity surge now reconciles itself to a bear market grappling with a massive liquidity drain,as many factors coalesce simultaneously to tighten financial conditions.High inflation and the end of pandemic-related transfer payments reduced real disposable income i

5、n 2022;however,real spending growth remained more resilient as consumers unleashed pent-up demand and shifted focus from goods spending to services spending.2023 may actually see this situation reverse as the drivers of inflationoil prices,food prices,wage gains,and productivitygive way and the pace

6、 of inflation drops.We expect a U.S.recession in the first half of 2023,as well as a continued global economic slowdown,as last years hawkish monetary policy and money growth slowdown works with a lag.That should drive down corporate earnings growth and create important inflection points for investo