1、Polestar and Rivian pathway reportSupported by KearneyPhoto by Angel Gomez Herreros Kearney,MadridContentsMethodology 11 Modeling principles 12 Model structure 12.1 Life cycle emissions 22.1.1 Estimation of 2021 life cycle emissions 22.1.2 Historic and future development of life cycle emissions 32.2

2、 Global passenger vehicles 42.2.1 Global passenger vehicle fleet 42.2.2 Global passenger vehicle sales 52.3 Estimated GHG budget for global passenger vehicles 62.4 Emission projection baseline 63 Sensitivity analysis 84 Impact from levers 114.1 Lever 1 Transition to ZEVs 114.1.1 Impact of lever 1 im

3、provements 114.2 Lever 2 Fossil-free energy 114.2.1 Impact of lever 2 improvements 114.3 Lever 3 Reduce supply chain emissions 114.3.1 Impact of lever 3 improvements 125 Long list of action examples 136 Scenarios 156.1 Scenario 1 156.2 Scenario 2 166.3 Scenario 3 177 Data table with sources 182 Mode

4、l structureThe model is built to estimate annual greenhouse gas emissions of the global passenger vehicle fleet from 2021 to 2050 and compare the cumulative amount to the remaining emission budget allocated to the passenger vehicle fleet for the same period(see figure 1).Two sets of factors(life cyc

5、le emission related and passenger vehicle parc related)are crucial inputs for the model.Three distinct scenarios are created to assess the various degrees of gap between the 1.5-degree carbon budget for passenger vehicles and the cumulative emission after applying all three levers with different tim

6、elines.Sensitivity analyses have also been performed across key factors(see more in Sensitivity section).1 Modeling principles Our modeling approach follows three key principles:1.Build a strong fact base by using existing data and analyses from recognized sources such as IEA,ICCT,and IPCC2.Showcase