公共预测项目：基于证据的应急预测信息传播原则.pdf

1、The Predictions in Public Project:Evidence-based principles for communicating predictions to the public during an emergencyReflections on Research Impact Natural Hazards Research Australia 2025Peter Wall,EMVChloe Begg,CFAJune 18,2025Technological advancementsExpectations from the publicRecommendatio

2、ns from reviews,inquiries,and royal commissionsPolitical pressurePrevious research in Victoria:Predictions in Public:BackgroundSupport for use of predictions in publicConcerns for how to embed predictions into existing warning products and when and how to release them.To use empirical evidence and c

3、ollaborative processes to contribute to the develop of national evidence-based guidance for the future use of public-facing predictive fire spread products during an emergency.Project Aims:Project Steering Committee:Representatives from AFAC PSG and AFAC WG from each Australian jurisdiction.TAS-Mark

4、 Chladil(PSG)and Heather Stewart(previously Peter Middleton)(WG)WA-Jackson Parker(PSG)and Anni Fordham/Deana Pullella/TimVella(WG)QLD-Moo Price(previously Jack Emueleus)(PSG)Jennifer Kerr(previously Alex Battye and Anna Grohn)(WG)NSW-Laurence McCoy/David Field(PSG)and Ben Shepherd(previously Anthony

5、 Clarke)(WG)VIC-Chris Morton(previously Phillip Brien and Alice Gower)(PSG)and Reegan Key/Marc Unsworth/Peter Wall(WG)ACT-Ailish Milner/Ryan Lawrey(PSG)and Leighton Bush(previously James Morris)(WG)SA-Simeon Telfer(previously Mike Wouters)(PSG)and Monique De Silva(WG)NT-Don MacCorquodale(previously

6、Akshy Athukorala)BOM-Vikki Heinrich(previously Fiona Dunstan)Project StakeholdersProject teamChloe Begg(CFA)Angela Gardner(EMV)Paula Dootson Amy Griffin&Erica Kuligowski(RMIT)Timothy Neale(Deakin University)Phase 1:Understanding current agency practice and community comprehension