1、WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOKINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDUPDATE2023JANInflation Peaking amid Low Growth Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023,then rise to 3.1 percent in 2024.The forecast for 2023 is 0.2 percentage p

2、oint higher than predicted in the October 2022 World Economic Outlook(WEO)but below the historical(200019)average of 3.8 percent.The rise in central bank rates to fight inflation and Russias war in Ukraine continue to weigh on economic activity.The rapid spread of COVID-19 in China dampened growth i

3、n 2022,but the recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery.Global inflation is expected to fall from 8.8 percent in 2022 to 6.6 percent in 2023 and 4.3 percent in 2024,still above pre-pandemic(201719)levels of about 3.5 percent.The balance of risks remains tilted to the do

4、wnside,but adverse risks have moderated since the October 2022 WEO.On the upside,a stronger boost from pent-up demand in numerous economies or a faster fall in inflation are plausible.On the downside,severe health outcomes in China could hold back the recovery,Russias war in Ukraine could escalate,a

5、nd tighter global financing conditions could worsen debt distress.Financial markets could also suddenly reprice in response to adverse inflation news,while further geopolitical fragmentation could hamper economic progress.In most economies,amid the cost-of-living crisis,the priority remains achievin

6、g sustained disinflation.With tighter monetary conditions and lower growth potentially affecting financial and debt stability,it is necessary to deploy macroprudential tools and strengthen debt restructuring frameworks.Accelerating COVID-19 vaccinations in China would safeguard the recovery,with pos