1、 FOR INSTITUTIONAL/WHOLESALE/PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION27th annual edition2023 Long-Term Capital Market AssumptionsTime-tested projections to build stronger portfoliosJ.P.Morgan Asset Management 3Foreword By nearly any measure,the early 2020s

2、 have been a period of extraordinary challenge.The worst pandemic in over a century triggered a short but severe recession and enduring supply disruptions.A generous fiscal response,facilitated by unusually easy monetary policy,fueled the highest levels of inflation since the early 1980s.Russias bru

3、tal invasion of Ukraine created a devastating humanitarian crisis and further supply disruptions and inflation.Central banks,led by the Federal Reserve,then aggressively tightened policy in response to inflation.And in 2022,financial markets around the world and across all major asset classes incurr

4、ed sharp losses.Amid these cascading crises,many of the past years losses have created significant opportunities.Against this backdrop,were pleased to launch the 2023 edition of J.P.Morgan Asset Managements Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions(LTCMAs).1 In our 27th year of producing capital market e

5、stimates,we incorporate more than 200 asset and strategy classes;our return assumptions are available in 17 base currencies.Over the years,many investors and advisors have come to depend on our assumptions to inform their strategic asset allocation,build more resilient portfolios and establish reaso

6、nable expectations for risks and returns over a 10-to 15-year time frame.Additionally,with each passing year,we aim to recalibrate our long-run approximations,incorporating new information presented by markets,policymakers and economic data.We formulate our LTCMAs as part of a proprietary process.It