乡村炉边谈话——越南纸浆和造纸业面临的机遇与挑战.pdf

1、VIETNAMS PAPER INDUSTRYOPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGESTABLE CONTENT1.General Context;2.Overview of Vietnams Paper Industry;3.Dual Transformation in the Paper Sector;4.Forecast:Opportunities and Challenges for Vietnams Paper Industry.2GENERAL CONTEXTFROM THE VUCA TO THE BANI Volatility Uncertainty Compl

2、exity AmbiguityVUCABANI Brittle Anxious Nonlinear IncomprehensibleVUCA:can predict and control any partBANI:not only unpredictable,but also fragile and hard to understand(Cold War Era)(proposed by American futurist Jamais Cascio)THE PORTRAIT OF THE BANI-WORLDPOST-PANDEMIC COVID-19Supply chain disrup

3、tion and rising global costsREGIONAL TENSIONS Russia Ukraine Israel Iran Thailand-CampuchiaAMERICA FIRST POLICYIncreasing protectionism,withdrawing from global commitments.CHINA RISING STRONGLYCompetition in Geopolitics Technology-EnergyThe BANI world is not only brittle,but also non-linear and cann

4、ot be predicted by old rules.Defining Shifts in Todays Unstable Global LandscapeTHE PORTRAIT OF THE BANI-WORLDTHE GLOBAL AI WAVEExtreme natural disasters,pandemics,and rising sea levelsCLIMATE CHANGEExtreme natural disasters,pandemics,and rising sea levels(Vietnams Recent Experience)RISING INEQUALIT

5、YBetween large enterprises and SMEs,between developed and developing countriesAI-DRIVEN MISINFORMATIONMisinformation,Social Polarization,and Trust CrisisBusinesses must invest in innovation amidst a turbulent landscape and continuous pressures.Newly Emerging Uncertain Factors:FRAGILE LONG-TERM STRAT

6、EGY IN A BANI WORLD BANI=nonlinear,unpredictable,and incomprehensible shocks;The 5 year plan(very common in Vietnam)can easily become a dangerous legacy,requiring leaders to act as Strategic Architects;Enterprises need to transition to the Agile model:Break Down Goals-Rapid Experimentation-Continuou