【研报】医药生物行业：特色原料药板块迎来中长期发展机遇-20200610[43页].pdf

1、 / 2019120472.9% Evaluate Pharma51590 330 API API+ + 1/ 2 /CMO/CDMO EPS PE 2019A 2020E 2021E 2019A 2020E 2021E 20.01 0.66 0.88 1.06 17 23 19 69.83 0.72 0.97 1.55 42 72 45 16.46 0.45 0.54 0.69 22 30 24 19.75 0.47 0.63 0.88 28 31 22 -2% 9% 20% 31% 42% 2019/6 2019/7 2019/8 2019/9 2019/10 2019/11 2019/1

2、2 2020/1 2020/2 2020/3 2020/4 2020/5 % 1M 3M 12M 5.07% 6.85% 51.45% 3.60% 9.66% 38.62% 331 58791 42745 42.46 3.76 17599 1007 % 44.28 -20200401 2020 CRO10 -20191128 -20191028 S0550517110001 021-20361131 S0550118080064 010-58034579 2020-06-10 2 / 43 1. . 3 1.1. . 3 1.2. 4 1.2.1. 4 1.2.2. . 7 2.“+” . 8

3、 2.1. . 8 2.2.API . 12 2.3. . 14 2.4.“” . 17 3. . 19 3.1. . 20 3.2. . 21 3.3./ . 23 3.4.CMO/CDMO. 23 4. . 25 4.1. . 25 4.2. . 29 4.3. 33 4.4. . 38 5. . 41 3 / 43 1. 1.1. ICHActive Pharmaceutical Ingredient API 1 1 / / / / / 4 / 43 2 CNKI 3 1.2. 1.2.1. 5 1/5 60% 80% 5 / 43 4 5 E 2008E2016 201710 E 6E

4、:50%:/kg Wind 6 / 43 7B1:98%:/kg 8D3(50IU/g):/kg 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Wind Wind 9K3:MSB96%:/kg 10A(50IU/g):/kg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Wind Wind 6-APA2017 6-APA260/kg2019 6-APA145/kg 195/kg 116-APA/kg 12/kg Wind W

5、ind 7 / 43 13 1.2.2. 1 2 3 4 8 / 43 2 1600 8 5 6 2035X 4.28 5 1330 505 8.45 5 480 14 2. + 2.1. 2018 75.931.1% 203085205097 9 / 43 15 16 2018658.87%2000 6.87%201865 10.92%20006.81% 201620506515.7 16.7%2018 68.6% 6541.7%65841 38%19.5% 52.2%45.3% 63.2% 52.8% 1765 1865 10 / 43 19205065 An Aging World201

6、5 International Population Reports IMS2019 120472.9% 201816285.0% 11 / 43 20 21 IMS Evaluate Pharma 202020241590 71320% 5 330 22 Evaluate Pharma 12 / 43 23 CNKI 2.2. API API APIDMF 80%70% 2016DMF46% API 242000-2016DMF 252000-2016API DMF1 2Chemical Weekly 30%CMO1/2 1/34060% 15%370% API 13 / 43 201714