《摩根大通：墨西哥瓶装饮料行业研究：展望2026年；审慎乐观；未雨绸缪-251029（英文版）（28页）.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《摩根大通：墨西哥瓶装饮料行业研究：展望2026年；审慎乐观；未雨绸缪-251029（英文版）（28页）.pdf（28页珍藏版）》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。

1、Latin America Equity Research29 October 2025J P M O R G A NMexican BottlersLooking into 2026-Hope for the Best,Prepare for the Worst LatAm Food&Beverages and AgribusinessLucas Ferreira AC(55-11)4950-Banco J.P.Morgan S.A.Froylan Mendez(52-55)5540-J.P.Morgan Casa de Bolsa,S.A.de C.V.,J.P.Morgan Grupo

2、FinancieroLarissa Perez(55-11)4950-Banco J.P.Morgan S.A.We are revising our estimates for the Mexican Bottlers following 3Q25 earnings,which demonstrated stronger-than-expected profitability despite anticipated weak top-line trends.This performance sets the stage for a potential acceleration in 4Q25

3、,contingent on improved weather conditions after record rainfall in 3Q.Looking ahead to 2026,demand dynamics and stock sentiment will hinge on the impact of the full pass-through of the increased excise tax in Mexico,particularly on volumes and margins.We project a 23%decline in Mexico volumes for 2

4、026 for both companies,driven by a 1012%rise in consumer prices across most of the portfolio.In other regions,we expect continued top-line and EBITDA growth in local currency terms.For 2026,we forecast EPS growth of 811%for AC and KOF,with AC benefiting from greater financial de-leveraging,partially

5、 offsetting the negative impact of MXN appreciation on top-line growth(+3%for AC vs.+7%for KOF).Our updated 2026 EPS estimates are 3%below Bloomberg consensus for AC and 2%below for KOF.Despite conservative assumptions for Mexicogiven that the projected volume decline is based on a weak 2025 baseval

6、uations remain attractive,trading at 13.412.7x 26e P/E,25%below the 10yr historical averages,and at a 20%average discount to the Mexican Consumer bundle.Additionally,we believe the Coca-Cola system is well-positioned to gain market share following the excise tax implementation.The industrys shift to