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1、North America Equity Research30 October 2025J P M O R G A NThe Cheesecake Factory,Inc.Slowing sales matched with still high y/y absolute pricing.Cost efficiency comes more into focus.UnderweightCAKE,CAKE USPrice(29 Oct 25):$50.39Price Target(Dec-26):$52.00Prior(Dec-26):$57.00RestaurantsJohn Ivankoe

2、AC(1-212)622-Rahul Krotthapalli(1-212)622-Christabel Rocha(1-212)622-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCKey Changes(FYE Dec)PrevCurAdj.EPS-26E($)4.154.00Quarterly Forecasts(FYE Dec)Adj.EPS ($)2024A2025E2026EQ10.660.94A0.96Q21.071.13A1.28Q30.630.68A0.69Q40.751.031.07FY3.113.784.00Style ExposureCAKEs 3Q25 headl

3、ine comps of+0.3%were softer than our 1.5%expectations.Overall EPS of$0.68 vs our$0.62 was achieved through years of accumulated y/y menu pricing matched with better in-store labor management and favorable cogs inflation.Included in comps were negative y/y traffic trends at both the core Cheesecake

4、Factory(-2.5%)and North Italia(-6%)brands.An increasingly negative macro environment and consumer backdrop was discussed,including uncertainty around government shutdown,tariffs,and perhaps slowing employment gains.We previously discussed a weaker younger cohort and lower consumer confidence in Blue

5、 states.The core CF and NI concepts arent experiencing much-if any-direct supply competition;broadly speaking new entrants are often fast casual oriented and competing on the margin for meal occasions.High absolute price points,especially when concepts draw from a wide range of customers,can see pul

6、lback in even modest changes in sentiment.We model-1%comps for the core CF brand in 4Q25 and-3%for NI,largely consistent with company comments to expect a 100bp slowing from 3Q25 trends.We are hosting CAKE Management in Miami(Brickell)on November 12,2025.Representing the company will be President Da