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1、North America Equity Research31 October 2025J P M O R G A NShake ShackBusiness in Transition:Wanting to Maintain“Fine Casual”Attributes While Implementing More QSR Initiatives UnderweightSHAK,SHAK USPrice(30 Oct 25):$91.38Price Target(Dec-26):$95.00RestaurantsRahul Krotthapalli AC(1-212)622-John Iva

2、nkoe(1-212)622-Christabel Rocha(1-212)622-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCKey Changes(FYE Dec)PrevCurAdj.EPS-26E($)2.051.76Quarterly Forecasts(FYE Dec)Adj.EPS ($)2024A2025E2026EQ10.130.14A0.27Q20.270.44A0.62Q30.250.36A0.46Q40.260.380.40FY0.911.321.76Style ExposureShake Shack is in an interesting period of

3、transition.The company has stated intentions to remain true to its original Fine Casual DNA as founded by Danny Meyer.But,this is matched with a recent execution that has sought to benefit from many technological,marketing,store design and supply chain efforts that are more ubiquitous across the fas

4、t casual/QSR space.Extended hospitality was previously achieved from high-personality cashiers to consistent table-service for in-SHAK consumption(pre-kiosk era)and using fresh over frozen ingredients for proteins/various sides from premium suppliers.These attributes in entirety are less common at t

5、he modern Shake Shack but previously justified the brands premium pricing for many years during the period of brands nascency.Current leaderships focus on business optimization should be watched carefully for unintended impacts on brand perception(and reality).Higher pricing actions and marketing/pr

6、omotional activity have been used to de-risk near-term comps in a highly competitive and inherently low-frequency premium/specialty burger category that can limit the intended customer breadth and targeted frequency.Our updated adj Ebitda estimates for F26/F27 move slightly lower to$260/$310m from$2