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1、North America Equity Research27 October 2025J P M O R G A NJPM LeisureHAS/MAT:Toy Trends Feel Great Right Now as Orders Exceed POS on Depleted Inventory;2026 Looking Good for HASRetailing Broadlines&Hardlines/LeisureChristopher Horvers,CFA AC(1-212)622-Christian Carlino,CFA(1-212)622-Barath Rao(1-21

2、2)622-Jolie Wasserman(1-212)622-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCOverall,the legitimate shift of retail ordering caused 3Q toy sales to miss at both HAS/MAT,but accelerating POS and lean inventories at retail suggest a strong finish to 2026,making the toy guides from HAS and MAT appear legitimate,while HASs

3、 Wizards/MTG business remains on fire.Looking to 2026,the bull case for OW-rated HAS stepped up considering the POS vs.channel inventory trends noted above,along with a very favorable entertainment slate to drive its lagging CP business(i.e.,Toy Story 5 driving Mr.Potato Head sales,a new Star Wars m

4、ovie,Spider-Man,and The Avengers,a“stacked content line-up”indeed).Taken together,HASs CP sales growth should finally turn positive after four years of contraction.In addition,the high margin Wizards business(high 30s segment op margin vs.the HSD goal for CP)has an even larger Universes Beyond line-

5、up(see below)with its core content,backlists,and door expansion promising for a record year on top of 2025s record year.The company is also launching its highly-anticipated Exodus video game(likely in the fall)and we estimate another$140MM of cost savings.For Neutral-rated MAT,given its primary focu

6、s on toys,tariffs are a larger challenge to contend with while its Barbie franchise is lagging with innovation an important necessity to improve trends(20%of gross sales)and visibility remains low.The company also faces some near-term movie laps(Moana 2,Wicked,WWE,and Jurassic),although two MAT IP m