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1、North America Equity Research27 October 2025J P M O R G A NRetailing-Dept Stores/Specialty SoftlinesBoss 3Q Preview:Fieldwork,Access Takes&26 PlaybookRetailing Department Stores&Specialty SoftlinesMatthew R.Boss,CPA AC(1-212)622-Amanda K.Douglas(1-212)622 Brady T Arnette(1-212)622-J.P.Morgan Securit

2、ies LLCCatalyst Watch is our near-term conviction indicator for our equity coverage universe.It is an indicator our research analysts can apply to a stock in their coverage into a specific event in order to articulate near-term positivity or caution based on a specific catalyst.As such,it can differ

3、 from the analysts published ratings,which are relative to their coverage universe and six to 12 months in duration.Across our Retail/Discretionary sector coverage-we thought value-add to share recent mgmt access takeaways,key fieldwork findings,and model implications.Below&herein we layout our 3Q p

4、review and FY26 playbook across our 5 Retail sub-sectors(Global Brands,Off-Price,Dollar/Discount,Dept Stores,and Specialty).I.“No Excuse”Current Macro Backdrop Led by Higher-Income Consumer Strength.At a macro level,total US consumer spending by our proprietary Chase Credit Card data points to+3.7%3

5、Q25 growth Y/Y(vs.2Q+3.5%and 1Q+3.9%)translating to a 7.4%2-year stack or+70bps of sequential acceleration(vs 1H25+6.7%average).Drilling down by category,Apparel&Footwear(i.e.Other Retail)spending was+5.1%growth in 3Q25(matching 2Q+5.1%and above 1H+4.8%)equating to a+8.7%2-year stack(=250bps above 1

6、H25)noting consistency across 3Q with October exiting+8.9%on a 2-yr stack vs.Sept+8.4%&Aug+8.9%).Source:J.P.Morgan,select Chase credit and debit card transaction data.See here for disclaimers and methodology.Digging Deeper=JPM Survey Work Points to Widening Income Bifurcation.Importantly,with the to