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1、The Rise of AI:A Reality Check on Energy and Economic ImpactsMark P.MillsExecutive Director,National Center for Energy AnalyticsDistinguished Senior Fellow,Texas Public Policy FoundationDistinguished Fellow,Hamm Institute for American EnergyNOVEMBER 13,2025A RESEARCH PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN:The National

2、 Center for Energy Analytics https:/energyanalytics.org The Hamm Institute for American Energyhttps:/hamminstitute.orgThe Rise of AI:A Reality Check on Energy and Economic Impacts2Executive SummaryTotal private sector spending committed to artificial intelligence(AI)is now a significant share of U.S

3、.GDP.Spending on building data centers aloneexceeding$50 billion annually and risinghas now surpassed spending on all other commercial buildings combined.The evidence of an emerging structural shift in the U.S.economy can be seen in the combination of the epic spending on AI,rapid adoption of AI too

4、ls,the implications for national security,the vigorous debates over the impact of AI in society,and,as well,the stock market enthusiasms.The core consequence of AI deployed at scale is in its potential for boosting productivity,the feature of every economy that drives growth and prosperity.If democr

5、atizing AI elevates U.S.productivity growth only to the average of the past half-century,it will add a cumulative$10 trillion more to the U.S.GDP than is now forecast over the coming decade.Often ignored in AI forecasts:the additional wealth created by using the new technology leads to behaviors tha

6、t use more energy.An extra$10 trillion would lead to increased overall energy use equivalent to about five billion barrels more energy over the next decade.Such a wealth-induced increase in energy consumption will be far greater than the quantity of energy needed to power the wealth-creating AI.But