德业股份-逆变器业务成中流砥柱迎光伏+储能迅猛增长-220804（40页）.pdf

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1、Ningbo Deye Technology(605117)Equity ResearchCompany ResearchHome Appliance()1/40 东吴证券（香港）东吴证券（香港）请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 As inverter becomes the main growth driver,Deye expects rapid growth from PV and energy storage Buy(Initiation)Forecast&Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue(RMB mn)

2、4,168 5,545 7,802 10,606 Growth(YoY%)38%33%41%36%Net profit(RMB mn)579 870 1,324 1,840 Growth(YoY%)51%50%52%39%EPS(RMB)3.39 3.64 5.54 7.70 P/E(X)60.77 56.55 37.19 26.75 Investment Thesis With steady growth of traditional business,Deye becomes a rising star in the inverter competitive market.Establis

3、hed in 2020,Deyes core business includes Heat Exchanger,Environmental Appliances represented by Dehumidifier,and Inverter.Deye is the only domestic inverter company that provides a complete range of inverter solutions,including grid-tied string inverter(GTSI),energy storage inverter(ESI),and micro i

4、nverter(MI).Its revenue of photovoltaic(PV)and energy storage business grew by 262%in 2021,contributing 50%of net earnings.Inverter business becomes the fastest-growing sector and contributes the most profit,while GTSI/ESI/MI contributed 45.2%/45.7%/9.1%of overall inverter revenue in 2021 respective

5、ly.Greater prosperity of PV and energy storage drives rapid growth of inverter market.1)The fast decline of PV cost brings a large increase in the industry demand:global solar installation is expected to reach 456GW in 2025.The rising penetration rate of distributed solar PV gives rise to a higher g

6、rowth of GTSI and MI.We model the MI market size to reach Rmb21.2bn in 2025,with increasing market share of string inverter.2)Increasing demand for power stability and favorable policies brings prosperity to the energy storage industry:in 2025 global energy storage installation is expected to reach