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1、7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on:20/08/2025 22:12:06 GMTDistributed on:20/08/2025 22:12:06 GMT21 August 2025Deutsche BankResearch Asia Economics Asia Macro Insight Date Central banks across Asia have maintained their easing bias,looking past the positive surprises in Q2 GDP and expecti

2、ng a growth correction in the second half of the year as export front-loading reverses in response to higher US tariffs.Our model(Figure 1)suggests that export growth deviation in Q2 may be significant,led in part by ASEAN,thereby hinting at a significant payback in exports in the second half of 202

3、5.The anticipated export decline may exceed a simple correctionbecoming deeper and longer than our forecastespecially given our assumption of a mere soft patch in G2 growth,as per our US and European analysts outlook.There is also the matter of pending semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs and th

4、e potential 40%tariff on transshipments of Chinese goods,with details remaining unclear as US-China negotiations continue through November,while US-India relations have worsened.Figure 1:Asia-8 export deviation.-20-10010203008101214161820222426Asia-8Fitted/Forecast%yoySource:CEIC,Deutsche Bank Resea

5、rchFigure 2:.led by ASEAN5%8%10%13%15%010203040501819202122232425US imports from ASEAN(USD bn)ASEAN Share(rhs)Source:CEIC,Deutsche Bank ResearchOverview.1China.3Hong Kong.7India.9Indonesia.13Malaysia.15Philippines.16Singapore.18South Korea.19Sri Lanka.21Taiwan.22Thailand.24Vietnam.26DB Macro Forecas

6、ts.28Growth&Inflation Heatmap.30EM Asia Macro Charts.31EM Asia Monetary Policy Monitor.33Juliana LeeChief Economist+65-6423-5203Kaushik DasChief Economist+91-22-7180 4909Yi Xiong,Ph.D.Chief Economist+852-2203 6139Junjie HuangEconomist+65-6423-6699Deyun OuEconomist+852-2203 6166Deutsche Bank AG/Singa