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1、 Global Macro Outlook 1 Global Economic Research Global Macro Outlook Third Quarter 2025 The Macro Picture The global policy environment continued to change rapidly in the second quarter.The US imposed,then suspended,massive tariffs on all its major trading partners,leaving the eventual global tradi

2、ng regime uncertain.Geopolitical tension escalated sharply,with armed conflict continuing in Ukraine and starting in Iran late in the quarter.Central banks around the worldexcept the US Federal Reserve(Fed)cut interest rates in response to a deteriorating economic outlook.And despite all of that,mos

3、t major asset prices ended the quarter more or less where they started after significant volatility along the way.In our view,the relative calm in financial markets is an uneasy one.While we cannot know the impact of geopolitical developments on the economy at this early stage,the resilience of both

4、 the economy and the financial markets to the prolonged war in Ukraine suggests that it would take something quite dramatic to change the existing paradigm.In the meantime,we believe that markets are waiting for more information about the impact that policy and geopolitical changes will have on the

5、global economy rather than responding preemptively in such an uncertain world.As the year progresses,we will get more information about the impact that trade,fiscal and monetary policy changes will have on the global economy.Our forecast anticipates a slowdown in growth concentrated in the second ha

6、lf of this year.As growth slows,we expect that central banks will continue to ease policy,with the Fed likely to lower rates in the second half of the year as well.Those rate cuts will offset some of the damage that tariffs will cause,helping the global economy to avoid a recession.This doesnt mean