The article "Australia’s grains industry in 2030" by Prof Ross Kingwell, presented at the ABARES National Outlook 2020, outlines the future of Australia's grains industry. Key points include:
1. The industry will undergo structural changes due to population growth, diet shifts, and climate change.
2. By 2030, Australia's population is expected to reach 30 million, with a significant increase in population density, leading to changes in grain consumption patterns.
3. Per capita meat consumption has not changed significantly, but the mix of meats is evolving, with poultry and pork becoming increasingly important.
4. Australia's total meat consumption has been offsetting the per capita decline in beef and lamb consumption due to population growth.
5. The feed grain demand is expected to increase by up to 2.5 mmt by 2030, primarily driven by drought conditions and more extensive livestock production in eastern Australia.
6. The flour and malt production will require an additional 0.8 mmt of grain to meet the growing population's needs.
7. Producers might respond by increasing grain storage, feed grain production, and regional flows of grain and feed.
8. Inland rail is due for completion by 2025, and South Australia is building new grain port terminals.
9. High-yielding feed grains for high rainfall regions and improved feed efficiency in animal breeding are also mentioned as opportunities for the industry.
Overall, the article highlights the challenges and opportunities for Australia's grains industry in the face of changing demographics, dietary preferences, and climate conditions.
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另外,到2030年,澳大利亚人口的增长将需要额外的80万吨谷物来生产面粉和麦芽。大部分新增需求将来自澳大利亚东部。澳大利亚的粮食生产者将如何应对2030年?粮食储备量增加,饲料产量增加,粮食和饲料区域流动增加。