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1、ab4 August 2025Global ResearchInitiation of CoveragePony AIChina robotaxi front-runner;initiate at BuyBest positioned for robotaxi commercialization in ChinaWe initiate coverage with a Buy rating and a PT of US$20,implying 53%upside potential.Pony is the first and only robotaxi company to start comm

2、ercial fee-charging and driverless robotaxi operations in all four tier 1 cities in China.During our test drives in Guangzhou and Shenzhen,Pony impressed us with its capability in handling complicated road situations without human intervention.We forecast a 2025-30 sales CAGR of 96%on Ponys robotaxi

3、 technology and operating scaling efforts.Fastest to achieve driverless operations,providing efficient and smooth ridesWe expect the TAM for robotaxis to reach US$183bn in China by late 2030s.We believe robotaxi companies with cutting-edge technology and flexible operating strategies will eventually

4、 win higher market shares.Guangzhous 2024 government report suggested Pony accumulated the second longest autonomous driving distance to Apollo but adopted autonomous driving for a higher share of the testing distance,and Guangzhous last company-specific data disclosure in 2022 showed the highest km

5、 per human intervention among peers.Our robotaxi test drives in Guangzhou and Shenzhen underscored Ponys technological leadership.Seventh-generation robotaxis cut cost below Rmb300k Pony has partnered with BAIC and GAC for mass production of seventh-generation robotaxis,lowering the total cost to Rm

6、b300k per car in mid-2025.The company has achieved average daily orders of 15,on par with or higher than typical taxis with human drivers in populous tier 1-2 cities.The company has also adopted flexible pricing in the early stage of user acquisition,a short-term strategy for market share acquisitio