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1、CrispIdea|R E S E A R C HAlibaba Group Holdings LtdE Q U I T Y R E S E A R C H Retail|E-commerce|Jul 21,2025Alibaba Group Holdings LtdQwen3 powers the future of open AIWe maintain our“BUY”rating for Alibaba and upgrade our target price to HKD125 from HKD115 for FY27 which implies an upside potential

2、 of 10%.We derive our target price based on an EV/EBITDA of 7.8x,along with a forward P/E of 13.72x and an adj.EPS of HKD9.11 for FY27.Moreover,we expect an EV/EBITDA of 8.3x,along with a forward P/E of 14.85x and an adj.EPS of HKD8.08 for FY26.Our estimates are based on 1)Launch of Qwen3;2)Strategi

3、c Growth in Taobao and Tmall;3)Strong growth in AIDC;and 4)AI demand drives accelerationIndustry Analysis:The global e-commerce market size reached$5.8tn in 2023.It is expected to reach$8.8tn by 2024 and$18.81tn by 2029,exhibiting to grow at a CAGR of 15.80%during 2024-2029.Asia leads e-commerce mar

4、kets worldwide.The total revenue of online retail in Asian countries added up to nearly$1.7tn in 2023.This was$800mn higher than the e-commerce revenue reached in the Americas.Australia,Oceania,and Africa achieved far lower e-commerce revenues in 2023,with values below$40bn.Launch of Qwen3:In April,

5、the company introduced a new series of AI models called Qwen3.These models are built to handle both quick answers and more complex reasoning within a single system.The series includes eight models in total,with six being standard models and two being Mixture of Experts models.All Qwen3 models were f

6、ully open sourced on platforms such as Model Scope and Hugging Face.This open release is meant to help developers,startups,and companies create new ideas and applications using these models.Qwen3 models ranked among the top performers in global AI evaluations.By the end of April,the company had rele