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1、M Global IdeaEnergy&ChemicalsChina Anti-involution:Implications for Global Energy and Chemicals We believe refineries worldwide including Chinas loss-making plants will likely benefit if Chinas anti-involution measures expedite the end of teapot refineries.Ethylene cyclicality depends on the regulat

2、ory risk of new projects.We also prefer global agrichem,PVC and dyes.Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Jack LuEquity Analyst Jack.L +852 2848-5044 Kaylee XuEquity Analyst Kaylee.X +852 2239-1506 Morgan Stanley Asia(Singapore)Pte.+Mayank MaheshwariEquity Analyst Mayank.M +65 6834-6719 Morgan Stanley&Co.Int

3、ernational plc+Martijn Rats,CFAEquity Analyst and Commodities Strategist Martijn.R +44 20 7425-6618 Morgan Stanley&Co.LLCVincent AndrewsEquity Analyst Vincent.A +1 212 761-3293 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co.,Ltd.+Takato WatabeEquity Analyst Takato.W +81 3 6836-5436 Reiji OginoEquity Analyst Reij

4、i.O +81 3 6836-8930 Ryoichi WatanabeEquity Analyst Ryoichi.W +81 3 6836-8929 Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+Rob KohEquity Analyst Rob.K +61 3 9256-8932 Morgan Stanley&Co.LLCJoe Laetsch,CFAEquity Analyst Joe.L +1 212 761-8804 Morgan Stanley&Co.International plc+Guilherme LevyEquity Analyst Guilherm

5、e.L +44 20 7425-6616 Morgan Stanley Asia(Singapore)Pte.+Vivek RajamaniEquity Analyst Vivek.R +65 6834-6740 Potential worldwide refinery multi-year upcycle post-China renationalization:3mbpd of teapot refiner capacity(16%of Chinas total)could be eliminated from the market by Chinas anti-involution me

6、asures over the next few years,alongside environmental/taxation tightening ahead.As a result,Chinas refineries will likely see improving utilization and GRM expansion with industry consolidation by SOEs,potentially marking the beginning of a new golden age for global refining.Naphtha crackers may ne