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1、Asia Pacific Equity Research29 May 2025J P M O R G A NHead of Asia Consumer ResearchKevin Yin AC(852)2800-J.P.Morgan Securities(Asia Pacific)Limited/J.P.Morgan Broking(Hong Kong)LimitedQian Yao(86-21)6106 SAC Registration Number:S1730521050001J.P.Morgan Securities(China)Company LimitedYibo Wu(852)28

2、00-J.P.Morgan Securities(Asia Pacific)Limited/J.P.Morgan Broking(Hong Kong)LimitedAfter coming back from our company visit tour and the JPM Global China Summit last week,we have a stronger conviction on the promising outlook for the China IP sector.Overall consumption demand has normalized in 2025 Y

3、TD,although most corporates are not seeing a meaningful demand pick-up.IP merchandise remains one of the best-performing consumer segments in 2025,providing affordable treats and creating immediate emotional and social connections.Most leading IP companies target to grow sales and earnings by 35%+CA

4、GR in the next three years,while most traditional companies would have single-digit sales growth with slight margin improvement.Our order of preference for Chinas consumer universe:1)Pop Mart and Laopu(strong growth);2)Anta,Mengniu,YUMC,Tsingtao(mature blue-chips);3)Tingyi and UPC(dividend yield pla

5、ys).Labubu(OW):The next“Hello Kitty”?The FAQ for us is how to gauge the LT revenue scale for a young super IP.Through analysis of Hello Kitty(51 years old)vs Labubu(10)and Sanrio(65)vs Pop Mart(15),we conclude that Labubu could reach yearly sales of up to Rmb14bn in 2027(Hello Kittys GMV of Rmb14bn

6、in 2023;our 2027E of Rmb11bn for Labubu),suggesting potential upside to both our and the Streets earnings estimates.We did a blue-sky analysis on what it would take for Pop Marts share price to double.Our answer is that it would need to deliver 25%incremental earnings vs our base case in 2028 new su