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1、 April 7,2025 ECONOMICS Singapore THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK RESEARCH PTE LTD SEE PAGE 22 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Co.Reg No:198700034E MICA(P):099/03/2012 Singapore Economics Reciprocal Tariffs,MAS Policy and Fiscal Dry Powder Effective Tariff Will Rise to

2、14%if 25%Tariff on Chips&Pharma Imposed Singapore has not been spared from reciprocal tariffs,but will face a relatively low baseline US tariff rate of 10%.Singapores free trade agreement,bilateral trade deficit and low tariffs on US goods was not a complete shield but protected the city state from

3、punishing reciprocal tariffs that hit many other ASEAN countries.The effective US tariff rate on Singapore is estimated to be lower at 4.9%,as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are exempted from the reciprocal tariffs pending so-called 232 security investigations.The collateral damage will worsen i

4、f Trump imposes a 25%tariff on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals which accounts for a sizeable 26%of total exports and 36%of exports to the US.The estimated effective US tariff rate on Singapore will rise to 14%in such a scenario.Lower GDP Growth Forecast to 2.1%in 2025 and 1.8%in 2026 We downgrade

5、d our GDP growth forecast to 2.1%in 2025(from 2.6%)and 1.8%in 2026(from 2.3%).Risk is on the downside as the global trade war may escalate.Flash GDP estimates may show growth slowing to+3%in 1Q 2025(vs.+5%in 4Q),as manufacturing ebbs while construction and services remain resilient.The export and ma

6、nufacturing growth momentum has been easing in recent months and may contract in the coming quarters with the broadening global trade war.Manufacturing saw a surprise-1.3%contraction in February,as external demand ebbed amid tariff uncertainty shocks and a dissipating frontloading boost.NODX growth