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1、Macro High Frequency18 July 2025Macroeconomic Research International-US Fiscal PolicyUS Fiscal PolicyChallenges aheadAnalystsLuiza PaparounisBrazil Banco BTG Pactual S.A+55 11 33833245AnalystsFrancisco LopesBrazil Banco BTG Pactual S.A+55 11 3383 6989Bottom line:In recent years,the United States has

2、 experienced an unusual combination for the country:high public deficitsdespite a still-heated economy a scenario that keeps fiscal concerns at the center of the debate.However,neither Republicansnor Democrats have shown willingness to implement the structural reforms needed to slow the debt growth

3、trajectory.In this context,the new fiscal package recently approved by Congress,despite including some spending cuts,has the potential toadd approximately$3.4 trillion to the US federal deficit over the next decade,according to the Congressional Budget Office(CBO).This would raise the debt-to-GDP ra

4、tio from its current level of about 97%to around 129%by 2034.In the CBOs scenario wherethe tax cuts enacted under the TCJA are not renewed,the debt-to-GDP ratio would reach 117%by 2034.In this report,we provide context on the recent evolution of the US fiscal dynamics and summarize the CBOs projecti

5、ons for theversion which was approved by Congress.Overall,we believe the fiscal impacts of the current proposal are already largely priced in by markets in the short term.However,the Treasurys need to rebuild its cash balance(the Treasury General Account,or TGA)could generate increased volatility an

6、dupward pressure on Treasury yields,repeating the pattern seen after the resolution of the debt ceiling standoff in 2023.Where do things stand in the US fiscal landscape?The US economy is navigating through an unusual fiscal scenario:elevated budget deficits have persisted despite a labor market atf