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1、Europe Equity Research11 July 2025J P M O R G A NEuropean PropertyNeil Green,CFA AC(44-20)7134-J.P.Morgan Securities plcVanessa M Guy(44-20)7742-J.P.Morgan Securities plcKrishna Sathwik Beechu(91-22)6157 J.P.Morgan India Private LimitedInterest in London office-exposed names has been building,as com

2、panies flag how recovering demand is facing off against limited supply.In GPEs case,this has led it to guide for prime office rental growth of up to 10%this year.We dig into the underlying data and find a number of supportive trends:(1)Vacancy is declining across London,with the sharpest moves in hi

3、gher-rated buildings;(2)Rental growth is accelerating-particularly in the West End-from c.1%in the four quarters to March 2022,to c.7%in the four quarters to March 2025.(3)Supply is constrained,with space under construction and renovation(that is still available to let)totalling 3%of office stock,wh

4、ile demand is recovering-British Land noted that take-up office space in Central London was up 29%in 1Q25 vs 1Q24.(4)Values appear to have inflected,and provided rental growth remains,our models see capital growth to come.The data therefore does support an optimistic view for the best positioned and

5、 well located office space-our preferred stocks are GPE(OW)and Derwent London(OW)vs Landsec(N)and British Land(N).We remain constructive on Workspace(OW),but believe the market will want to see occupancy inflect before fully re-engaging.All the numbers for the office five:GPE(OW),Derwent London(OW),

6、Workspace(OW),Landsec(N),British Land(N)-portfolio exposures,our forecasts vs Bloomberg consensus for the coming three years and a look at current but also historical share price valuations.We find that earnings growth is back on the agenda,with GPE leading the way.NAV growth is likely to be muted,w