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1、North America Equity Research11 July 2025J P M O R G A NPayments,Processors&IT ServicesTien-tsin Huang,CFA AC(1-212)622-6632tien-Connor Allen(1-212)270-Andrew D Polkowitz,CFA(1-212)622-Brendan Biles(1-212)270-FintechReginald L.Smith,CFA(1-212)622-Charles Pearce,CFA(1-212)622-J.P.Morgan Securities LL

2、CIn this report,we compile intra-quarter data on consumer spending in the United States.On a reported basis(not adjusted for leap year),spending growth appears relatively stable compared to 1Q and our base case assumes our coverage will continue to frame the macro environment as stable.Adjusted for

3、leap year,Chase card data indicate overall 2Q spending growth decelerated 1ppt,although intra-quarter commentary from the networks(through late May)indicate somewhat better performance.Intra-quarter ecommerce data show 1ppt of deceleration vs.1Q(or stable growth including leap year),continuing to pe

4、rform notably better than card-present spending,although the growth premium narrowed slightly.Restaurant spending was stable-to-improved,with Chase card data indicating 40bps of acceleration(or 2ppts including leap year)and Fiserv data showing 1ppt of acceleration(through May);accommodation/food ser

5、vice business starts were up 10%y/y(improving from-5%in 1Q).Discretionary spending growth decelerated 30bps,while non-discretionary spending decelerated 2ppts,according to Chase card data.See details and figures within.Next data point:large issuer earnings next Tuesday 7/15,which in aggregate repres

6、ent about a third of V/MA U.S.volume.Takeaway.On balance and adjusted for leap year,Chase card data indicate domestic volume growth in 2Q decelerated 1ppt vs.last quarter.On a reported basis(not adjusted for leap year),Chase card data show domestic spending growth was essentially stable(accelerating