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1、2025 Midyear Global Market Outlook2025 Midyear Global Market Outlook2Contents03 2025 Midyear Global Market Outlook04 Macroeconomic Outlook Much Has Changed,But Not Everything 06 Geopolitical Outlook Next Stop,Fiscal Stress?08 Equity Outlook An Easing of Headwinds 10 Fixed Income Outlook A Favorable

2、Environment for Bonds 12 Commodity Outlook Gold Continues to Shine 2025 Midyear Global Market Outlook3Lori Heinel,CFAGlobal Chief Investment Officer2025 Midyear Global Market Outlook We noted in our Global Market Outlook 2025 that while we retained confidence in a soft landing outcome and a generall

3、y positive environment for risk assets,much was unknown about the policies of the incoming Trump administration.We know a lot more now.After a turbulent period that saw episodic swings in both equities and bonds in response to wide-ranging executive orders and the announcement of higher-than-expecte

4、d tariffs,financial markets have since stabilized with the tariff imposition paused to allow for trade negotiations.There is now greater confidence that tariff levels will settle well below the original headline levels that spooked markets.While much has changed,a lot remains the same.Notwithstandin

5、g all the noise,we largely maintain our growth forecasts and projections for central bank rate cuts,while recognizing that tariffs at the lower end of the range will likely still bring some inflationary pressures in the US.Europes pledge to spend more on infrastructure and defense is a positive,bols

6、tered by Germany easing its limits on government borrowing.Whether Europe and other regions can retain the investment that flowed out of US equities remains to be seen,particularly if the Trump administration quickly follows through on its pro-growth agenda of deregulation,incentives for US-domicile