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1、Ready for resilienceHow to navigate the new tariff landscapeAuthorsMuqsit AshrafJack AzaguryBen CareyJames CrowleyGroup Chief Executive StrategyGroup Chief Executive ConsultingSenior Managing Director Strategy Global Products Industry Practices ChairNick KojucharovAndrew LevyChris TomsovicPrincipal

2、Director Macro Foresight Chief Economist,StrategyChief Corporate&Government Affairs OfficerManaging Director Macro Foresight Global Lead,Strategy2Ready for resilienceContentsIntroductionRapid response to drive resilience0412The economic impact of tariffsReady for resilience06163Ready for resilienceI

3、ntroductionOn April 2,President Trump unveiled the largest and most sweeping tariff package to date in his second term.This consisted of an additional 10%tariff on imported goods from all countries,which entered into effect on April 5,and higher,individualized“reciprocal”tariffs of up to 50%on impor

4、ts from 57 countries including China,Japan and EU nations.The latter initially came into effect on April 9,but have since been paused for 90 days for all countries except China,which instead saw its reciprocal tariff increase to 125%.The 10%universal tariff remains in place.1The current reciprocal t

5、ariffsand the 90-day pausedo not apply to Canada and Mexico,as these countries face a separate 25%tariff on goods that do not comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement(USMCA),nor to foreign-made autos,steel and aluminum,which are also subject to a separate 25%tariff.With these latest dev

6、elopments,the average trade-weighted,or effective,tariff rate on goods imports into the U.S.has risen to roughly 29%the highest level since the early 1900s and up from only 2.4%at the end of 2024(see Figure 1).Should the Administration enact additional tariffs that it has previously signaled are und

7、er considerationsuch as on semiconductors,pharmaceuticals,copper and lumberas well as the paused higher reciprocal tariffs,the effective U.S.tariff rate could reach 40%.As noteworthy as the magnitude of the tariffs,however,is the unprecedented uncertainty introduced by their scale and ever-changing

8、nature.The only certainty is that executives should focus on creating more resilient organizations to navigate this historically volatile environment.Below,we detail our macroeconomic analysis and describe the key capabilities all companies need to strengthen their resilience.4Ready for resilienceOn

9、 the rise The effective U.S.tariff rate,2024 to presentFigure 1Note(s):1/Except for imports of energy resources(including critical minerals)and potash from Canada,which are subject to a 10%tariff;2/Paused for implementation until at least July 8,2025.3/Includes China and Cuba,who are expected to con

10、tinue importing Venezuelan oil after April 2;4/Prospective tariff rates on copper and lumber imports have not yet been signaled but are expected to be in line with the 25%for other products facing Section 232 tariffs.Source(s):USITC,Haver,Accenture Strategy analysisEstimated impact of announced meas

11、ures on overall U.S.effective tariff rate Percent2.352.680.813.403.9312.503.465.013.352.070.330.130.17404505101520253035Copper(25%)4Full reciprocal on China(125%)Lumber(25%)440.18Autos(25%)Mexico and Canada non-USMCA compliant goods(25%)1Steel and aluminum(25%)Starting rate(2024)Across-the-board on

12、importers of Venezuelan oil(25%)3China across-the-board(20%increase)Pharma(25%)Chips(25%)Partial reciprocal on other countries(10%)Remaining(paused)reciprocal on other countries2Ending rateIn effect(as of April 9)Announced/signaled for future implementation+27p.p.+11p.p.5Ready for resilienceThe econ

13、omic impact of tariffsThe economic impact of the new U.S.tariff regime is likely to be substantial.In the U.S.,risks of a recession have risen considerably.Meanwhile,the additional cost imposed on the average U.S.household from higher tariffs could be around$2,000 per year.How will the new U.S.tarif

14、f regime affect the global economy?Asia is particularly exposed to higher tariffs.Countries like Vietnam,India and Japan face the prospect of significant increases in the effective tariff rate on their exports to the U.S.(Figure 2),but China is far and away the most impacted and has been the primary

15、 target of U.S.tariffs.The EU is also facing a significant increase.Uneven tariff exposure Asia is more exposed to higher U.S.tariffs than are countries in the EU or North AmericaFigure 2Note(s):1/Includes the full 125%reciprocal tariff on China,and the partial 10%tariff on all other countries(excep

16、t Mexico and Canada);2/Includes the remaining portion of the individualized higher reciprocal tariffs on certain countries,implementation of which has been postponed until at least July 9.Source(s):USITC,Haver,Accenture Strategy analysis10.8%China3.8%Vietnam2.4%India1.5%Japan0.2%South Korea1.2%EU0.3

17、%Mexico0.1%Canada154.4%45.7%26.9%25.8%24.0%22.8%20.8%16.3%Starting rate(2024)Across-the-board fentanyl tariffsSteel and aluminumAutosReciprocal(partial)1PharmaceuticalsSemiconductorsCopperLumberSecondary Venezuela oil import tariffReciprocal(remaining,under pause)2In effect(as of April 9)Pending or

18、under future considerationImpact of tariff packages on average tariff rates imposed on key U.S.trading partnersPercent7Ready for resilienceAnother factor that will determine the global impact of the new U.S.tariff regime is the extent to which other countries retaliate by increasing their own tariff

19、s.To date,only Canada and China have implemented retaliatory tariffs against the U.S.The EU signaled an intent to impose new tariffs but put them on hold in response to President Trumps 90-day pause.2 Decisions to retaliate will be influenced by the perceived costs and benefits.Figure 3 illustrates

20、three significant variables that may affect countries responses:the effective tariff rate increase they face under the new U.S.tariff regime;the share of goods they export to the U.S.as a percentage of their GDP;and their relative importance as a destination for U.S.exports(the larger the bubble in

21、the chart,the greater the countrys share of total U.S.exports,including services).For instance,countries such as Vietnam,which face a large tariff increase and depend heavily on the U.S.as a market for their exports,may be reluctant to retaliate for fear that further U.S.tariff escalation could hurt

22、 their export competitiveness.In contrast,other countries such as the EU and Canada,which are important destinations for U.S.exports(both goods and services),may feel they have leverage in negotiations with the U.S.and thus be relatively more inclined to retaliate.The recent pause in the U.S.recipro

23、cal tariffs may also change certain countries negotiation calculus.8Ready for resilienceGlobal exposure Some countries have more leverage than others to retaliate against U.S.tariffsFigure 3Note(s):Effective tariff rate shown includes all signaled future tariff packages,some of which have not yet be

24、en implemented.1/The greater a countrys dependence on U.S.exports for economic growth,the higher the tariff increase faced,and the smaller its share of U.S.exports,the more likely it is to make concessions rather than retaliate.Source(s):U.S.Bureau of Economic Analysis,Haver Analytics,USITC,IMF,Acce

25、nture Strategy analysisDimensions of country exposure to U.S.tariffs1IndiaIndonesiaJapanS.KoreaEU9Ready for resilienceWhat about the impact of the new U.S.tariff regime on the U.S.economy itself?That depends very much on the duration of the current tariffs and the potential for them to change in the

26、 coming weeks and months.This will be a function not only of how strongly other countries retaliate,but also how the Trump administration prioritizes certain tariff-related strategic objectives,as well its tolerance for inflation and economic disruption.Though implementation of the higher reciprocal

27、 tariffs on all countries(except China)has been paused for now,some of these increases could still go into effect later depending on the outcomes of bilateral negotiations and shifts in the focus of the Trump Administrations objectives.The interaction of these different variables could give rise to

28、at least three broad future tariff scenarios.Given the high level of uncertainty at play and the frequent shifts in U.S.trade policies in recent weeks,these should be viewed as illustrative signposts along a continuum of possible outcomes.In the first scenario,“pragmatic de-escalation”,reciprocal ta

29、riff reductions are negotiated for most countries,as well as possible exemptions from some of the product-specific tariffs.The first step of this process is already playing out with the April 9 pause of the higher reciprocal tariffs.In this scenario,the Administration may choose to maintain the mini

30、mum 10%universal tariff for two key reasons:(1)to preserve some support for the Administrations re-industrialization and fiscal revenue objectives;and (2)to limit the scope for tariff evasion via transshipment and other methods,something the Administration has consistently voiced as a concern.This s

31、cenario outcome,our analysis shows,could bring the U.S.effective tariff rate back down to a range of 15-17%(compared to the estimated 29%at present).In the second scenario,“holding the line”,certain trading partners are able to secure tariff reductions from the U.S.if they offer particularly large c

32、oncessions.But for most others,the threatened higher reciprocal tariffs are ultimately re-instated.This could be the outcome of a hardline negotiating approach by the U.S.and a high bar for granting tariff relief.It could also reflect renewed prioritization of re-industrialization as the U.S.main st

33、rategic objective,and the belief that this can only be meaningfully achieved if higher tariffs are ultimately implemented and maintained for an extended period.Under this scenario,additional product-level tariffs currently under consideration(such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals)would also be

34、implemented in support of re-industrialization and national security considerations.Collectively,this would keep the U.S.effective tariff in the vicinity of 30%.In the third scenario,“disorderly escalation”,failed negotiations and/or significant retaliation by other countries would cause tariff rate

35、s to spiral higher,and the trade war could broaden to include restrictions on cross-border services,technology and investment.This outcome could push the U.S.effective tariff rate north of 40%and also result in considerable and widespread increases in the tariff rates other countries charge on the U

36、.S.Each of these scenarios could create significant headwinds for the U.S.and global economy.Though“pragmatic de-escalation”would scale back the magnitude of the tariff shock,it would still leave U.S.tariffs at much higher levels than at the beginning of the year or at any point since the 1930s.This

37、 would renew price pressures at a time when recent disinflation momentum has already begun to stall and prolong the cost-of-living crisis for U.S.households.The resulting drag on GDP growthboth from the price pressures on consumer spending,and the dampening effect of high policy uncertainty on busin

38、ess capexmay not be large enough to trigger a U.S.recession.However,it could still push the U.S.economy into a state of low growth and high inflation,known as stagflation,and significantly curtail U.S.imports from countries most impacted by U.S.tariffs,weighing down their economies as well.10Ready f

39、or resilienceIn the holding the line scenario,both the inflation impulse and growth drag from tariffs are likely to be amplified.Higher tariff rates on a broader range of products and countries will make it more likely that the one-off price increases generally associated with tariffs convert to mor

40、e persistent inflation pressures due to second-round effectssuch as rising consumer inflation expectations,anticipatory price hikes by companies,and rising wage demands by workers with eroded real incomes.Parallel policy initiatives such as immigration restrictions,or federal workforce reductions un

41、der DOGE,may further contribute to a weakening of demand.While there could be some growth offsets in the form of tax cuts and deregulation,these may not start to kick in until next year.The Federal Reserve may also be reluctant to step in with monetary stimulus as it tries to contain tariff-related

42、inflation pressures.In this scenario,a U.S.recession becomes a significant risk.Lastly,in the case of a disorderly escalation,the intensifying and increasingly unpredictable nature of the trade war is likely to create a vicious cycle of deteriorating business and consumer confidence,financial market

43、 volatility and supply chain disruptions.As U.S.recession would likely become unavoidable in this scenario,as would a broader global downturn,with spillovers to most markets and industries.11Ready for resilienceRapid response to drive resilienceEnterprise resilienceStrengthening enterprise resilienc

44、e begins with rigorous insight into the spectrum of risks facing the companyboth immediate and long-term.As economic fragmentation deepens and recession risks rise,executives should ask:How has the near-term and long-term outlook changed,and how might it affect our performance across business lines?

45、Scenario planning,for example,needs to be embedded at the enterprise level,taking into account both top-and bottom-line impact.The goal:move beyond merely reacting to change and toward proactively preparing for fundamental shifts in demand,financial conditions and global trade.To help strengthen ent

46、erprise resilience,companies should do things like integrate automated economic signal monitoring and AI-powered scenario simulation directly into enterprise decision-making processesthereby enabling faster,more proactive responses to emerging risks and opportunities.By leveraging AI,companies can q

47、uickly process market data,regulatory updates and geopolitical developmentsand thus equip executives with the insight needed to make more rapid,informed decisions.As the preceding findings make clear,there is significant uncertainty about not only the future path of tariffs,but also their likely imp

48、act on both the global economy and on specific industries.To respond to fast-moving policy changes,companies should focus on fortifying their resilience to navigate in this environment;such measures should simultaneously secure the present,while creating a more competitive,profitable future.Here we

49、draw on our research and client work to identify the four dimensions of resilience that enable enterprise resilience and are critical for every organization.13Ready for resilience01Operational resilienceAs tariffs and supply shocks ripple through global networks,the tradeoff between near-term manage

50、ment and longer-term capital investment is becoming sharper.Companies should therefore rethink how they manage their cost structure,network and logistics,as well as supplier relationships and sourcing strategies,and capital prioritization,in order to maximize profitability,cash flow and return on in

51、vested capital.In this environment,operational resilience is about agility and the determined pursuit of productivity gains.Data-driven tools are essential to this effort.Digital twins,for example,can simulate disruptions across supply chains,stress-test scenarios and identify weak links before they

52、 turn into major problems.AI can be used to accelerate cost analysisincluding cost-models,alternative-sourcing options and make vs.buy choicesand assess tariff impacts in real time.These insights allow supply-chain executives to shift resources proactively and mitigate margin headwinds through smart

53、er operational choices.Building operational resilience also requires rewiring end-to-end value chains for greater competitiveness.The companies that emerge stronger will do more than simply manage through disruption;theyll also reset their cost and productivity baselines by focusing on the capabilit

54、ies that truly differentiate them.That means doubling down on areas where technology and talent can deliver the greatest strategic impact,while shedding complexity and inefficiency elsewhere.02Commercial resilienceAs costs rise and demand stays unpredictable,companies face a tough balancing act:prot

55、ecting margins without pushing customers away.Indeed,with price sensitivity increasing,companies need to know what costs can realistically be passed on,as well as where value needs to be created or reinforced.Building commercial resilience means acting not just to protect margins,but also to grow in

56、telligentlyeven in down cycles.And as value pools shift rapidly,companies should ensure their innovation and marketing investments are aligned with emerging areas of opportunity.Success depends on the ability to anticipate changing customer priorities and strategically reallocate resources toward th

57、e segments and offerings where future growth and profitability are most likely to reside.To support their efforts,companies would do well to deploy enterprise-grade,AI-powered pricing solutions that are both scalable and adaptable across the value chain.These systems integrate real-time data,predict

58、ive analytics and machine learning to dynamically adjust prices in response to shifts in input costs,competitive activity and customer-demand signals.AI can also be deployed to enhance visibility into promotional effectiveness,to track evolving customer sentiment and to uncover emerging value pools.

59、When embedded within a broader,data-driven pricing strategy,AI allows organizations to respond with speed and precisiondriving measurable impact even in highly volatile conditions.14Ready for resiliencePeople are at the heart of any resilient organization.But employee concerns about issues like infl

60、ation,job insecurity and labor market shifts challenge both morale and retention.Companies also need to plan for the workforce impact of reindustrialization,reshoring and restructuringand support employees through it all.The good news is that companies have a range of levers to build a more agile an

61、d resilient workforce.These include aligning workforce structure and location strategy with shifting value and profit pools,resizing the organization to support faster decision-making and simplified processes and embedding AI to augment workforce skills.When combined with digital platforms for upski

62、lling and continuous learning,these actions can help companies adapt to disruption while empowering employees to grow with the business.Meanwhile,real-time sentiment monitoring can be used to identify employee stress points and strengthen engagement.By surfacing emerging concerns early,companies can

63、 take targeted action to support employee well-being,productivity and trust.In short,cultivating people resilience involves empowering employees to thrive as conditions change in unpredictable ways.Geopolitical risk,trade friction and talent shortages are putting new pressure on enterprise technolog

64、y infrastructure.As a result,when fostering technology resilience,the pursuit of“dynamic adaptability”is now just as important as the quest for reliability:Can systems support margin defense?Can they scale securely under strain?AI should play a central role in this transformationnot just through aut

65、omation,but through the focused deployment of technology and talent against the most critical opportunities and risks that a company faces.This requires organizing cross-functional teams to align AI capabilities with strategic priorities,from adjusting logistics and procurement strategies in respons

66、e to trade shifts to optimizing pricing and workforce deployment in real time.Cybersecurity,too,requires targeted talent and resources,with organizations continuously reassessing risk exposure and digital defense as global tensions rise.Building technology resilience today is about more than keeping

67、 systems runningits about concentrating capability where it matters most,so core operations remain secure,adaptive and strategically aligned.0304People resilienceTechnology resilience15Ready for resilienceReady for resilienceAs the new tariff regime reshapes the global business landscape,resilience

68、should be at the top of every executives agenda.By focusing on the four capabilities described above,companies will greatly strengthen their resilienceand,in so doing,turn it into a competitive edge.Thats a welcome bit of certainty in an uncertain world.17Ready for resilienceReferencesUnited States,

69、Executive Office of the President.Executive Order 14,257(amended):Modifying Reciprocal Tariff Rates to Reflect Trading Partner Retaliation and Alignment.10 Apr.2025.White House,https:/www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retalia

70、tion-and-alignment.Miao,Hannah.“China raises retaliatory rates on U.S.goods to 84%.”The Wall Street Journal,April 9,2025.1.2.18Ready for resilienceAbout Accenture Accenture is a leading global professional services company that helps the worlds leading businesses,governments and other organizations

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