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1、Measures of pol icy uncertainty have far surpassed l evel s reached during the firstnTrump administration and coul d rise further as new pol icies are announced andother countries respond to US tariffs.Much of the very recent rise in uncertaintywas rel ated to President Trumps“reciprocal”tariff pl a

2、n,but even with thedetail s of the pol icy now in hand,considerabl e uncertainty about how the pol icymight evol ve,how other countries might react,and the potential for further tariffincreases remains.We estimate the effects on business investment,hiring,andconsumer spending.On business investment,

3、appl ying estimates from our prior research andnacademic studies to the recent increase in uncertainty impl ies a roughl y 5ppdrag on investment growth,which weve incorporated into our forecast.We nowexpect roughl y flat business investment over the next year,and our quantil eregression model s impl

4、 y that the probabil ity of a decl ine in capex over the nextyear has risen to 45%.We expect much l arger effects than in the first trade warbecause far more US companies are l ikel y to be affected by uncertainty aboutUS and foreign tariffs this time,and many more coul d be affected by uncertaintya

5、bout fiscal and immigration pol icy.On hiring,uncertainty about both tariffs and government spending cuts coul dndepress j ob growth.We estimate that trade pol icy uncertainty wil l exert aroughl y 20k drag on monthl y empl oyment growth,that the direct effects offederal spending cuts wil l reduce f

6、ederal government payrol l growth by 25-30kj obs per month this year,and that uncertainty about federal payments wil lreduce hiring by about 35k in sectors that rel y heavil y on federal funding such asstate and l ocal government,heal thcare,and education.So far through March,these potential spil l