安联（Allianz）：全球企业破产报告：2024年状况与未来2年预测（中译版）（30页）.pdf

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1、18 March 2025Allianz ResearchThe corporate battlefield:Global insolvencies in times of war economicsAllianz Research22Content Page 3-4 Executive SummaryPage 10-182025-2026:The rise in global insolvencies is not overPage 19-27 Regional outlooksPage 5-9 In 2024,business insolvencies increased by doubl

2、e digits in one out of two countries18 March 20253 After surging by+10%in 2024,our Global Insolvency index is set to rise by+6%in 2025 and+3%in 2026 as the delayed easing of interest rates and increased uncertainties keep companies under pressure.The number of business insolvencies rebounded in four

3、 out of five countries in 2024.The US stood out with a major rise(+22%)and the Eurozone also posted a noticeable acceleration(+19%),particularly in France(+17%),Germany(+23%)and Italy(+45%).The UK saw a reduced number of cases(-5%)and China recorded an upside trend reversal of+3%.In Western Europe,n

4、early half of sectors have surpassed their pre-pandemic levels of business insolvencies,with the biggest increases in 2024 seen in transportation,construction and B2B services.Looking ahead,the delayed easing of interest rates and increased uncertainty will leave companies in wait-and-see mode,reduc

5、ing activity and threatening already fragile firms.North America and Asia are expected to drive the rise in business insolvencies(US:+11%to 25,580 cases in 2025).Western Europe will also face another rise in 2025(+3%)for the fourth consecutive year,before seeing a modest improvement in 2026(-3%),a t

6、rend mirrored by Central and Eastern Europe.In Germany and Italy,business insolvencies would continue to increase in 2025(+10%and 17%respectively,to 24,300 and 14,000 cases)and 2026(+2%and+2%),but the fiscal stimulus announced in Germany could limit this outlook.In France,insolvencies would reach a