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1、04Global economic outlook:Four years in a row of below 3%economic growth08Inflation should finally retreat to 2%allowing monetary easing to continue12Developed markets to slow down led by the US economy19 December 2024Allianz ResearchGlobal Economic Outlook 2025-26 Defying gravity?Our outlook playli

2、st,inspired by Wicked,the musical.Happy holidays!14Emerging markets:Resilient despite headwinds from a contained trade war10Corporates are navigating uncertainty and continue to rebalance inventories17Capital market outlook:Investing with optimism and vigilance2 Global economic growth:Not quite“danc

3、ing through life”.Global real GDP growth is expected to remain moderate but steady at+2.8%in 2025-26.We expect developed economies to experience a slight slowdown,with growth tapering from+1.8%in 2025 to+1.7%in 2026.In contrast,emerging economies are likely to sustain robust growth at+4.1%across bot

4、h years.The US economy is forecasted to grow at+2.3%in 2025,slowing to+1.8%in 2026.The Eurozone is projected to grow by+1.2%in 2025 and+1.5%in 2026,with countries like Spain and Ireland leading with higher growth rates.Germany,however,is set to record modest growth after two years of recession.China

5、s growth is projected to moderate from+4.6%in 2025 to+4.2%in 2026 as the country continues to transition towards a more consumption-driven economy while managing external trade pressures.Is“something bad”on the way?After the super electoral year,“the Wizards(and not us)”of policy design will be very

6、 influential for both the economy and capital markets.Political changes,such as the US elections,could reshape economic landscapes and introduce uncertainties.Geopolitical risks,including tensions between major powers,continue to be a significant concern for global stability.A potential trade war by