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1、i2025 Consumer Products Industry Outlook2025 Consumer Products Industry OutlookSpending while saving:Pricing headwinds lead companies to look elsewhere for profitable growthDeloitte Consumer Industry Center2025 Consumer Products Industry OutlookTable of contents02.Introduction04.Why higher prices ma

2、y no longer be the solution06.2025 moves:Pulling different levers for profitable growth15.Moving into the year ahead16.Methodology 19.Endnotes2Price,volume,and mix are the basic factors that must be balanced to achieve profit-able growth.Its a simple yet intercon-nected formula consisting of the pri

3、mary determinants of revenue(price x volume)and gross profitability(associated with the margins made on the underlying product mix sold).Of course,countless other factors influence how each of the three components contributes to performance in any given year,but price,volume,and mix are at the core.

4、Two years ago,we discussed how balancing that formula had become a lot more complicated.1 With major demo-graphic,political,environmental,technological,and cultural shifts underway,consumer preferences have become increasingly divergent.2 As brands work to keep pace with a transforming consumer base

5、,getting price and product right,and doing so profitably,is becoming more difficult.3 Consumer products companies have had to invest more to maintain relevancy with diverse groups4 while simultaneously finding ways to improve efficiency and free up resources.This challenge has not eased.Last year,as

6、 pricing power started to become more limited,some companies shifted to volume as a driver of growth.They increased advertising and discounts,to a greater or lesser degree,but neglected other volume levers,5 and not all achieved the results they sought.As 2024 came to an end,the push for more volume

7、 remained a struggle for many in the industry.6 For 2025,the challenges look familiar.With strong pricing headwinds,it may still be a play for profitable volume.7 But companies,especially high performers,are emphasizing a somewhat different set of strategies to achieve that success.We analyzed the f

8、inancial and other attributes of the top 100 global consumer products companies by revenue and data from a global survey of executives at food and beverage,household goods,personal care and beauty,and apparel companies(see“Methodology”).The top performers in our analysis,which we call“profitable gro

9、wers,”stand apart in three areas.Product portfolio and mix:Investing more in product innovation and actively managing out low-performing products and lines of business while acquiring better ones Demand generation:Modernizing demand-gener-ation capabilities,including better directing trade,marketing

10、,and price-pack architecture investments,and aiming to be more digital,targeted,and relevant Transformative efficiency:Funding investments in growth by simplifying organizations and finding new efficiencies,especially through digitization and automation,to decrease costsIntroduction32025 Consumer Pr

11、oducts Industry OutlookThe global economy surprised to the upside in 2024.In the past year,inflation has fallen sharply in major industrial economies,labor markets have remained tight,real wages have risen,and economies have continued to growespecially within an unusually resilient US economy.8 Head

12、ing into 2025,it is likely that the often hoped-for and rarely seen soft-landing will appear.That is,economic growth will likely continue and could include inflation easing further,central banks continuing to reduce interest rates,and financial market conditions improving.On the other hand,there are

13、 potential risks to the global economy,mainly in the geopolitics arena.New barriers to trade,with China,for example,could further disrupt global supply chains,leading to shortages,delays,higher costs,and potentially higher inflation.9 The conflict in the Middle East has not yet led to a sharp rise i

14、n oil and gas prices.Yet this remains a possibility,which could influence inflation.Finally,the existing trade agreement between the United States,Mexico,and Canada must be renegotiated by 2026.10 How this transpires could influence investment and trade patterns,likely impacting consumer-oriented co

15、mpanies.United StatesThe US economy has been resilient,with strong growth and receding inflation.In part,this reflects the productivity-enhancing impact of large-scale investment in laborsaving and labor-augmenting technologies.11 Given current economic trends and barring major policy changes or sur

16、prises,the Federal Reserve will likely continue to ease monetary policy in 2025,leading to lower borrowing costs and improved financial conditions.Still,it is reasonable to expect a modest deceleration of economic activity in 2025,especially as debt-laden consumers hold back to improve their persona

17、l balance sheets.12 Debt delinquencies are elevated,13 and interest rates will likely remain far higher than in pre-pandemic times,despite declining.14 Therefore,some easing of consumer spending growth can be expected.Also,if across-the-board import tariffs are implemented,that could boost inflation

18、 and reduce consumer purchasing power.15 Potential tax changes may have their own consumer spending effects.16EuropeThe European economy barely grew in 2024.17 However,a combination of factors is likely to improve the outlook for 2025.These factors include declining inflation,interest rate cuts by t

19、he European Central Bank and the Bank of England,as well as rising real wages.Still,Europe faces challenges such as onerous demographics,restrictive fiscal policies,rising competition from China and the United States,and potential trade conflict with the United States.18 For the consumer sector,ther

20、e remains considerable excess savings accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic.19 As interest rates fall,wages rise,and employment grows,consumers might feel comfortable dipping into their savings,thereby boosting spending growth.ChinaChinas economy is on a lower growth trajectory of 3%to 4%.20 A co

21、nfluence of factors is limiting growth.These factors include less favorable demographics and a weakening real estate sector,although internal migration could be a mitigating factor.Potential higher tariffs by the United States or other resistance to Chinese exports could present a significant extern

22、al shock in 2025.The central bank is expected to ease monetary policy.The degree to which the government implements fiscal stimulus will partly determine the growth outlook.The consumer outlook is modest,held back by the need to save more to recoup lost wealth.A major fiscal stimulus combined with a

23、 more robust social safety net could lead to accelerated spending growth.ConclusionThe global economy offers signs for a relatively positive experience for consumer-oriented businesses.Spending will likely grow while inflationary pressure diminishes.The major risks involve geopolitics and disruption

24、 of supply chains.For consumer products companies,these risks warrant a focus on supply chain resilience and redundancy.Ira Kalish,chief economist,Deloitte Global November 2024THE 2025 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE CONSUMER PRODUCTS INDUSTRY 4Why higher prices may no longer be the solutionFrom 2021 to 20

25、23,consumer products companies often relied on raising pricessomething many had to do because the price of inputs had gone up.However,those price increases also helped companies grow profit-ably.While the ability to price-take started to decline last year,consumers largely continued to spend.21 If i

26、nflation rears its head again from tariffs,supply chain challenges,or other unexpected disruptions,22 this could shift.But for 2025,most industry executives surveyed no longer anticipate significant price-taking.Many think raising prices will not help with revenue growth and would instead cause reta

27、ilers to push back while materially decreasing consumer demand(figure 1).And consumer resilience could have its limits as consumers continue to assess prices against what they used to pay in 2019.Its a sign that though inflation is returning to more normal levels,prices remain elevated and consum-er

28、s arent experiencing much relief.Consumer products companies may find consumers trading down,finding substitutes,or exiting categories altogether.Besides,amid rising competition spanning global players to agile niche entrants,an overreliance on pricing strategies as the driver of growth risks aliena

29、ting consumers and may just temporarily mask brand relevance issues.52025 Consumer Products Industry OutlookFigure 1For many surveyed companies,price-taking strategies face headwinds in 2025Percentage of executives who agree or strongly agree with each statementNotes:Total respondents,n=250;food and

30、 beverage,n=120;household goods,n=45;personal care,n=45;fashion and apparel,n=40.Question:Thinking about your pricing and volume strategies for 2025,to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?Source:Deloite Consumer Products Industry Outlook survey,October 2024.TotalFood a

31、nd beverageHousehold goodsPersonal care Despite inflation easing,consumers are still negatively comparing the higher prices they pay now with the lower prices they were paying in 2019(pre-COVID)64%66%67%60%60%We cannot count on higher prices to drive revenue growth in 202551%50%62%47%45%Our retailer

32、s will aggressively push back on further“price-taking”(raising product prices)47%42%58%51%45%Our prices can go up by more than 3%without materially decreasing consumer demand30%30%38%24%28%Fashion and apparelPricing strategyStatements relating to 62025 moves:Pulling different levers for profitable g

33、rowthIn 2025,companies will likely be addressing prod-uct portfolio and mix to entice the consumer,as well as investing in a broader set of demand-gen-eration capabilities.Businesses are also expected to create transformative efficiency to produce savings that help fund those invest-ments(figure 2).

34、Figure 2Top-performing consumer products companies appear to emphasize three strategies for profitable growth in 2025Source:Deloite analysis of consumer products industry dynamics concerning profitable growth.RevenueScale economiesGross marginPRICEMIXVOLUMEProfitable growthORGANIZATIONAL FOUNDATIONS

35、Industry growth structureStrategies Product innovation Perpetual portfolio managementProduct portfolio and mix Simplification Digitalization Automation and AITransformative efciency Increasing and redirecting marketing spending Precision analytics Adapting price-pack architectureDemand generation720

36、25 Consumer Products Industry OutlookProduct portfolio and mixIncreasing unit volume sold is still an important lever to help drive profitable growth.However,the share of executives surveyed who say volume is their compa-nys primary lever is down(22%,down 14 percent-age points from last year),and so

37、me are struggling to increase volume using traditional methods(for example,broad-based advertising and promotions).23 Instead,the industry is turning toward improving the mix of products sold(figure 3).Profitable growers are even more likely to be focused on mix(79%versus 67%for all others).That fig

38、ure is up significantly from last years survey,when just 58%of profitable growers focused on mix.At the time,profitable growers stood out more for their intent to focus on volume(40%versus 34%for all others).This shift could be a sign that the top performers are ready to have product itself take a l

39、eading role.Figure 3In 2025,respondents indicate that product mix will receive the most emphasis in the profitable growth equationAreas that consumer product executives say will recieve most emphasis in their strategy for the year aheadNote:n=250.Question:It takes a combination of price,volume,and p

40、roduct mix to drive profitable growth.Knowing that each component is important,which of the three will receive the most emphasis in your strategy for the year ahead?Source:Deloite Consumer Products Industry Outlook survey,October 2024.20246%22%72%202362%36%2%Shif the mixIncrease volumeRaise price+10

41、 p.p.8How are companies planning to pull the product lever?Product innovationSome consumer products companies,especially profitable growers,are looking to innovation as a way to reengage consumers.Most executives surveyed(95%)say introducing new products or services is a priority for their company i

42、n 2025.This commitment shows up in spending intent:Investment in product innovation is set to increase for 80%of those surveyed,and the trend is even more pronounced among profitable growers(85%versus 76%for all others).The industry has received some criticism in the past for failing to introduce en

43、ough real product innovation.24 That dynamic may be changing,as nearly two-thirds of executives surveyed say they will shift a greater share of their innovation investments to developing truly novel products(figure 4).Where to direct that innovation is another question.With two-thirds(67%)in the sur

44、vey seeing an increase in the proportion of consumers trading down to lower-cost options and alternatives,and a little over half(52%)agreeing that even high-income consumers are becoming more value-seeking in their choice of products Figure 4Survey responses suggest regulation,premiumization,analyti

45、cs,and novelty are influencing product strategiesPercentage of executives who agree or strongly agree with each statementNotes:Total respondents,n=250;profitable growers,n=94;everyone else,n=156;food and beverage,n=120;household goods,n=45;personal care,n=45;fashion and apparel,n=40.Question:Thinkin

46、g about your product strategies for 2025,to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?Source:Deloite Consumer Products Industry Outlook survey,October 2024.New regulatory requirements are increasingly shaping our product development strategy(for example,Ecodesign for Sustain

47、able Products Regulation,High Fat Salt Sugar regulation,etc.)We will use product premiumization more to improve the profitability of our sales mixWe will use precision analytics to identify new brands and growth opportunitiesWe will shif a greater share of our innovation investments next year to dev

48、eloping truly novel products as opposed to minor enhancements or changesFood and beverage64%62%64%63%Profitablegrowers81%71%80%71%Everyoneelse60%63%54%59%Household goods69%71%58%67%Personal care 80%76%64%67%65%65%70%60%Fashion and apparelTotal68%66%64%64%PerformanceCategoriesProduct strategyStatemen

49、ts relating to 92025 Consumer Products Industry Outlookor channels,value for money could be emphasized.But high-end products are not off the table,as about two-thirds of executives(66%)say their company will be pursuing a premiumization strategy as well.While ultimately the“right”answer to finding g

50、rowth on the premium-to-value spectrum is company-and category-specific and rooted in consumer preferences,it would seem encouraging that consumer products companies are approaching this challenge in a more nuanced waynearly two-thirds of companies(64%)say they will use precision analytics to identi

51、fy their new brands and growth opportunities.Companies are increasingly using generative artificial intelligence capa-bilities to simulate product-market fit,manufacturing,and audience-based marketing.25 And this assistance may be needed to not just innovate for consumer needs but also to address em

52、erging product regulations(figure 4).In fact,rising demand for sustainability from multiple stakeholders could continue to shift industry priorities in the years ahead.More companies are thinking about their product innovation in terms of“occasions.”For example,85%of surveyed executives in food and

53、beverage say they are increasingly orienting their strategy around occa-sion-based selling.They arent just competing against other companies offerings in the frozen food aisle,for example.They are competing against all other substitutes for the occasion of Thursday nights dinner.This kind of broader

54、-based understanding of occasions may help companies find better answers to consumer problems.Perpetual portfolio managementHigh-performing companies look to be taking a clear-eyed view of their portfolios and divesting and acquir-ing as needed.What once might have been seen as an admission of failu

55、reeither to turn around struggling offerings or to grow organically in hot new categoriesis now often a sign of mature management.A little over half of executives surveyed(51%)are at companies that regularly divest underperforming lines of business,and profitable growers are even somewhat more likel

56、y to say they divest regularly(59%versus 47%for all others).Meanwhile,2025 could also be a bigger year for acqui-sitions,as 6 in 10 executives surveyed(60%)expect to increase the number of acquisitions they make this year.Profitable growers are even more likely to make acquisitions(72%versus 52%for

57、all others).Despite the frequent mentions at financial conferences and on earnings calls,“bolt-on”acquisitions(buying smaller organizations in the same or similar markets)arent the top priority for the highest-performing company in our survey.Nor are profitable growers at the other end of the extrem

58、e,buying companies to get into a high-growth category or market.Instead,they are seeking strong brands to drive growth(80%versus 54%for all others)and mergers and acquisitions deals to accel-erate digital transformation(74%versus 62%for all others).These findings mirror those of a Deloitte survey of

59、 executives on their views on M&A trends,which found improving competitive positioning and accel-erating the long-term transformation to new business models as the two best ways to describe their companys M&A strategy.26Demand generationA more engaging product portfolio and mix can help drive profit

60、able growth,but in 2025,companies should also consider rethinking their approach to demand generation.Shifting channels and new retail models are upending traditional strategies.Additionally,the frag-mented consumer base can be harder to reach,especially with messages personalized to consumers speci

61、fic needs.And consumers are often more demanding about where they want to discover and purchase products,meaning companies may need to serve them in multiple channels simultaneously.That is likely why 79%of executives say their companies will be investing more in digital channels and platforms in th

62、e year ahead.They should do what they can to entice consumers to use them.How are companies boosting their demand-generation capabilities?Increasing and redirecting marketing spendingOn a mission of increasing sales volumes and preventing erosion in demand from value-seeking consumers,most consumer

63、products companies increased their spending on advertising in 2024.27 A ramp-up in investment is likely to continue,as nearly 7 in 10 surveyed execu-tives(69%)work at companies planning to increase their 2025 marketing and advertising expenditures as a percentage of revenue,while 76%plan to offer mo

64、re sales discounts and promotions than they did in 2024.10As we will soon demonstrate in the precision analytics section,companies across all sectors are also seeking more data-driven proof points that their marketing spend is delivering genuine return on investment,against metrics that could includ

65、e sales,market share,household penetration,and more.This is likely inspiring the indus-trys efforts to continue to shift to digital,including to retail media platforms,which may affect more traditional trade spend(figure 5).Precision analyticsThe industry has continued to embrace the use of preci-si

66、on analytics to make granular business decisions.Most industry executives surveyed(70%)see precision analyt-ics as a way to better optimize the ROI of their market-ing investments.Nearly three-quarters(74%)say their analytics capabilities are helping them be more precise in setting the right prices,

67、promotions,and discounts than they were previously.Profitable growers are more likely to say that preci-sion analytics will help optimize marketing ROI(86%versus 60%for all others).They also believe analytics can help their companies prevent overpromotion and discounting mistakes.However,all compani

68、es may not be so analytically equipped.Profitable growers are more worried that competitors may overuse promotions and discounts in a way that could hurt their pricing power(figure 6).A special category of precision analytics,revenue growth management(RGM)systems,continues to gain promi-nence in the

69、 industry:Sixty-two percent of those surveyed say their RGM capabilities will play a major role in their Figure 5Most companies surveyed are redirecting resources to digital and retail mediaPercentage of executives who agree or strongly agree with each statementNotes:Total respondents,n=250;profitab

70、le growers,n=94;everyone else,n=156;food and beverage,n=120;household goods,n=45;personal care,n=45;fashion and apparel,n=40.Question:Thinking about your marketing strategies for 2025,to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?Source:Deloite Consumer Products Industry Outl

71、ook survey,October 2024.Compared to recent years,more of our advertising and marketing spend will be digital in 2025We are shifing more resources to retail media(for example,promotions inside of retailers digital channels)We will likely spend less on traditional trade spend or allowances provided to

72、 retailers to promote our products in 2025Food and beverage67%60%65%Profitablegrowers77%79%74%Everyoneelse63%57%59%Household goods69%82%60%Personal care 71%69%69%68%58%65%Fashion and apparelTotal68%65%65%PerformanceCategoriesMarketing strategyStatements relating to 112025 Consumer Products Industry

73、Outlooksuccess in the year ahead.As consumers continue to be sensitive about price,homing in on their preferences and behaviors with RGM will be key.For some high-performing companies,precision analytics could play a role across the value chain as well.They may want the insights to better manage the

74、ir extended ecosys-tem.It is likely a reason that 85%of profitable growers surveyed say they will invest in collecting more detailed data from their supply chains,versus only 60%of all others.The data from the value chain ecosystem can be important to consumer products companies that sell through re

75、tailers,as it is those retailers that often have the needed data to better know their end consumers.Adapting price-pack architectureUsually informed by RGM systems,adjusting price-pack architecture is a hot topic in the industry.Mentions in earnings calls among the top 100 global consumer products c

76、ompanies grew significantly over the last few years and are up 52%from 2023(figure 7).Consumers may benefit from price-pack architec-ture changes that are better adapted to their important occasions and needs.This strategy can help consumer products companies increase profitability and better fit co

77、nsumer value-seeking.For 2025,theme dominanceprofitability or valuemay vary by subsector(figure 7).Figure 6Analytics can help with promotions,but competitors could still make harmful decisionsPercentage of executives who agree or strongly agree with each statementTotal respondents,n=250;profitable g

78、rowers,n=94;everyone else,n=156;food and beverage,n=120;household goods,n=45;personal care,n=45;fashion and apparel,n=40.Question:Thinking about your marketing strategies for 2025,to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?Source:Deloite Consumer Products Industry Outlook

79、survey,October 2024.Precision analytics will help us prevent the over promotion or discounting mistakes of the pastWe are worried competitors may overuse promotions or discounts to a degree that hurts our own pricing powerFood and beverage72%43%Profitablegrowers87%63%Everyoneelse67%39%Household good

80、s84%56%Personal care76%42%70%60%Fashion and apparelTotal74%48%PerformanceCategoriesMarketing strategyStatements relating to 12Transformative efficiencyChanging product portfolio and mix and improving demand generation often require funding.Many compa-nies are trying to create a flywheel of cost savi

81、ngs to fuel the reinvestments that will help drive growth.To get there,companies should consider how they can simplify,digitize,and automate their business processes,including finding efficiencies in their front office,supply chain,procurement,and information technology spending.While productivity i

82、s often on the agenda,there may be a special emphasis on it now,as 96%of executives surveyed plan to make improving productivity a priority in 2025.They are backing up this priority,as 82%say their company will invest more in productivity,with profitable growers leading the way.Straight up cost cutt

83、ing is on the agenda as well,with almost two-thirds of executives(64%)noting that their organization will focus more on decreasing costs in 2025 than it did in prior years.But in this instance,companies should be careful of short-termismcutting so much today that they sacrifice future performance.Fi

84、gure 7Companies are generating demand with price-pack architecturePrice-pack architecture mentions by the worlds top 100 consumer products companies,quarterly by yearNotes:(Lef chart)Keywords used include“price-pack”OR“price pack architecture”OR“smaller pack*”OR“big*pack*”OR“pack size*.”Actual data

85、available until Q3 2024,extrapolated thereafer to get a full-year view.(Right chart)*=Alcohol has a small sample size compared to other categories.Apparel executives were excluded from answering these price-pack architecture questions.Food and beverage(without alcohol),n=99;alcohol,n=21;household go

86、ods,n=45;personal care,n=45.Sources:(Lef chart)Deloite analysis of earnings call transcripts and presentations for the top 100 global consumer products companies,from 2020 through Q3 of calendar year 2024,where available.Frequency counts were obtained through AlphaSense queries.(Right chart)Deloite

87、Consumer Products Industry Outlook survey,October 2024.Percentage of executives surveyed at companies that are adjusting their price price-pack architecture in 2025 to.010203040506020202021202220232024Q4 2024EstimatedTrend increase profitability of sales mixFood and beverage(without alcohol)Alcohol*

88、Household goodsPersonalcare provide more options for value-seeking consumers74%62%62%81%60%78%80%76%132025 Consumer Products Industry OutlookHow are companies trying to achieve transformative efficiency?SimplificationOver two-thirds of executives surveyed(68%)work at companies that are simplifying o

89、r otherwise improving their organizational structure,with profitable growers leading the charge(77%versus 63%for all others).Over 6 in 10(65%)say they aspire to operate their business through a globally governed,locally executed model.Given these dynamics,the industry may have renewed interest in sh

90、ared services for back-and front-office oper-ations as one way to ensure they focus closely on their core business,opting to simplify by not doing every-thing for themselves.Simplification can extend outside formal organizations to entire value chains as well,both upstream and down.Many companies ha

91、ve worked toward simplification for some time.28 The returns of those prior investments are starting to become evident.For example,74%of exec-utives surveyed agree that their operational speed and agilitysuch as the speed of decision-making,ability to adapt to market changes,or production throughput

92、have increased in the last few years.DigitalizationDigitalization can help bring down the marginal costs of managing complexity.It may help companies reach new levels of efficiency,evidenced by more than two-thirds(68%)of surveyed executives who are investing in smart technology solutions and automa

93、tion to transform and optimize their operating costs.About the same number(67%)believe digital transformation is necessary even to compete.The figures are even higher among alco-hol,fashion,and personal care companiesand among profitable growers,81%believe digital transformation is essential,compare

94、d to a 58%of all others surveyed.Where could they see the best returns?Executives surveyed believe marketing and sales offer the highest marginal return for further investment in digital trans-formation,selected by 48%and 38%,respectively.Industry executives seem to be keeping in mind the digital in

95、vestments needed to enable the future of work(figure 8).Related but sometimes neglected,it is also important to acknowledge digitalization may require a rethinking of talent.What skills are needed and in what proportion can change.Unaddressed,talent gaps in data analytics,automation,and emerging tec

96、hnologies may threaten competitiveness,and cultural inertia and inter-nal resistance can stifle the agility essential for survival.Figure 8Executives are preparing for the digital future of workPercentage of executives who agree or strongly agree with each statementNotes:Total respondents,n=250;prof

97、itable growers,n=94;everyone else,n=156;food and beverage,n=120;household goods,n=45;personal care,n=45;fashion and apparel,n=40.Question:Thinking about your business digital transformation strategy in 2025,to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?Source:Deloite Consumer

98、 Products Industry Outlook survey,October 2024.We are investing in digital solutions that enable the future of workDigital transformation strategy Statement relating to Food and beverage87%Profitablegrowers86%Everyoneelse79%Household goods78%Personal care 78%75%Fashion and apparelTotal82%Performance

99、Categories14Automation and AIAutomation,robotics,and AI are hot topics at most of the companies we surveyed,with 67%of executives surveyed making investments in these areas with the explicit purpose of increasing efficiency.AI seems especially important right now.About 3 in 4(76%)surveyed executives

100、 work at companies that are increasing investment in AI.For most,the highest returns on these specific AI investments are expected in the same areas as they were for digital investments in generalmarketing and sales(figure 9).Improved efficiency and productivity are the most frequently named benefit

101、s(52%)executives surveyed hope to gain with AI.Much of the AI investment is being directed to a rela-tively new areagenerative AIwhere 89%of respon-dents are investing at least a fifth of their AI budget.Nearly a third are making a bigger bet,with 31%invest-ing about half of their AI budget in gen A

102、I.With that investment comes high expectations:Seventy-six percent expect higher ROI from their gen AI investments than for their technology investments in general.As a group,profitable growers are increasing their invest-ment in AI(85%versus 70%for all others)and moving more quickly than the rest o

103、f those surveyed as they do so(89%will likely have a major gen AI business appli-cation running next year versus 76%among all others).However,profitable growers surveyed are putting a Figure 9Companies are expecting the highest return on investment from AI in marketing and salesTop five areas where

104、surveyed companies expect to see the highest ROI from deployment of all types of AI-based applicationsNotes:n=250.Question:In which of the following areas do you expect to see the highest ROI from deployment of all types of AI-based applications?Source:Deloite Consumer Products Industry Outlook surv

105、ey,October 2024.29%29%33%36%50%Product developmentLogistics and fulfilmentPlanning and forecastingSalesMarketing152025 Consumer Products Industry Outlooksmaller percentage of their investment into gen AI than the industry at large(23%are allocating about half their AI budget to gen AI compared to 35

106、%among all others).Profitable growers surveyed expect higher ROI on the gen AI investments they do makeperhaps because they are more likely to use gen AI for back-office functions,while other respondents are focused on marketing and sales.AI is an enticing topic,so it is important to note that,for m

107、any practical reasons,fully scaling AI should include a data foundation and an ongoing activa-tion of a modern data strategy.Some companies may still need to make these investments.For those consumer products companies that have already laid their data foundation(for example,consumer relation-ship m

108、anagement,customer data platforms,sales data lakes,etc.),this could be the year to scale AI using those data sets.The consumer products industry is often known for conservatisma posture that has served companies well on many occasions in the past.At a time of so much uncertainty,there may be an inst

109、inct to“wait and see.”However,at this point in time,that approach may be anything but conservative and instead fraught with risk.Inaction at a time of great change could be a road map to obsolescence.And even after the roller coaster of the last few years,2025 may be the right time to dig in and mak

110、e the changes many leaders already know in their gut are inevitable.Product portfolio and mix,demand generation,and transformative efficiency are familiar but powerful levers.Now,with the latest tools and technologies,they can take on new forms.And,as weve discussed throughout this report,high-perfo

111、rming companies in the industry are taking decisive actions on all three fronts.2025 could be a pivotal year for the industry.To meet the moment,consumer products companies should consider upping their game in product inno-vation and more proactively divesting and acquiring to reshape their portfoli

112、o.They should look to shift marketing to digital,and to use precision analytics to power granular decision-making and drive ROI on their increased marketing,promotion,and price-pack architecture investments.And to free up needed resources and prepare for the future,they should find ways to simplify,

113、digitalize,and automate their orga-nization and processes.Moving into the year ahead16MethodologyTo establish the evidentiary founda-tion for the Deloitte 2025 Consumer Products Industry Outlook,we analyzed a worldwide set of the 100 largest public consumer products companies by revenue,drawn from S

114、&P Capital IQ and filtered for industry definitional fit(for example,excluding high-end luxury,tobacco,and conglomerates with less than 50%of revenue from consumer products).We then used a five-year composite percentile index of both top-line growth and efficient use of assets(measured in return on

115、assets)to assess relative success.Years were assessed on a rolling last-12-months basis ending on Aug.31,2024,and working backward to a fifth-year set that began on Sept.1,2019(figure 10).Notably,the upper-right-quadrant companiesthe prof-itable growers sought out by investorscome from a cross-secti

116、on of categories,countries,and sizes,making their example applicable across the consumer products industry.They also outperformed on other important dimensions,including total shareholder return,price-to-equity ratio,and profit margin(figure 11).29In October,Deloitte also conducted a global survey o

117、f 250 consumer products executives spanning food and beverage,household goods,personal care,and apparel companies.All respondents were senior decision-makers at companies with more than US$500 million in revenue(most above US$5 billion).They were sourced propor-tionally to roughly match the geograph

118、ic corporate 172025 Consumer Products Industry OutlookFigure 10Profitable grower findings are applicable across categories,countries,and company sizesNotes:LTM=Last 12 months as of August 31,2024.The analysis covers a period of five years spanning pre-pandemic,pandemic,and post-pandemic/high inflati

119、on periods.Source:Analysis of top 100 consumer products companies performance metrics from S&P Capital IQ.01020304050607080901000102030405060708090100Revenue growthFive years of LTM periods average composite percentile index-Return on assetsFive years of LTM periods average composite percentile inde

120、xFood and beverageFashion and apparelHousehold goodsPersonal careSize of circle =LTM revenue(US$million)Underutilized growersUnderperformersEfcient performersProfitable growers50th percentile5.9%50th percentile6.1%18headquarters and industry subsectors present in the top 100 global consumer products

121、 company financial analysis.The survey was targeted at the top 100 global companies but was conducted in a“double-blinded”fashion,meaning neither Deloitte nor the respondents knew the names of the respective companies involved.As such,profitable growers in survey analysis were identified as those re

122、spondents working at companies indicated to be on track to grow both revenue and earnings before interest,taxes,depreciation,and amortization in 2025.Survey questions were developed through an analysis of trending topics found in company reports,earnings call transcripts,and analyst reports,as well

123、as through exploratory surveys and interviews with Deloitte indus-try leaders.We also deployed many of these same meth-ods to determine what high-performing companies(on revenue and return on asset indexes)were doing differently from the lower-performing companies in our financial analysis.Figure 11

124、Profitable growers also outperform in other ways,including valuationNotes:The analysis covers a period of five years spanning pre-pandemic,pandemic,and post-pandemic or high inflation periods.ROA=return on assets;EBITDA=earnings before interest,taxes,depreciation,and amortization;ROIC=return on inve

125、sted capital;P/E=price-to-earnings;TSR=total shareholder return.Source:Analysis of top 100 consumer products companies performance metrics from S&P Capital IQ of companies24Underutilized growers23Profitable growers24Efcient performersAverage 5-year TSR4.1%10.2%0.3%1.1%Average forward P/E17.8 19.5 18

126、.3 16.6 Average ROIC3.0%9.0%3.9%1.8%Average EBITDA margin12.3%23.0%19.1%13.2%Average ROA3.6%7.6%3.7%Average annual revenue growth7.7%11.6%2.8%2.5%29UnderperformersRank by metricDefining characteristicsAdditional measures192025 Consumer Products Industry Outlook1.Leon Pieters,Nick Handrinos,Justin Co

127、ok,Cline Fenech,and Jagadish Upadhyaya,2023 Consumer Products Industry Outlook,Deloitte,accessed Dec.12,2024.2.Leon Pieters,“The future of the consumer industry,”Deloitte,accessed Dec.12,2024.3.Finimize,“Consumer spending shift hits global brands hard,”August 2024;The Financial Times,“US consumer go

128、ods companies are losing upper hand on pricing,”July 7,2024.4.UBS Global Research and Evidence Lab,“Publicis:Still in the earnings upgrade cycle.Buy.”Sept.4,2024.5.Nick Handrinos,Leon Pieters,Dr.Jacob Bruun-Jensen,Justin Cook,Cline Fenech,and Jagadish Upadhyaya,2024 Consumer Products Industry Outloo

129、k,Deloitte,accessed Dec.12,2024.6.Barclays Equity Research,“Global consumer staples:US Nielsen insights 4w/e Sep 7th,”Sept.17,2024.7.Handrinos,Pieters,Bruun-Jensen,Cook,Fenech,and Upadhyaya,2024 Consumer Products Industry Outlook.8.International Monetary Fund,“World economic outlook:Policy pivot,ris

130、ing threats,”October 2024.9.Daragh Clancy,Donal Smith,and Vilm Valenta,“The macroeconomic effects of global supply chain reorientation,”European Central Bank,accessed Dec.12,2024.10.Congressional Research Service,“United States-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement,”Dec.6,2024.11.US Department of the Treasu

131、ry,“Economy statement by Eric Van Nostrand,performing duties of assistant secretary for economic policy for the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee,”press release,Oct.28,2024.12.Federal Reserve Bank of New York Research and Statistics Group,“Quarterly report on household debt and credit:Q3 2024,”C

132、enter for Microeconomic Data,November 2024.13.Ibid.14.Federal Open Market Committee,“Summary of economic projections,”press release,Sept.18,2024.15.UBS,“The economic and investment implications of higher tariffs,”Sept.3,2024.16.The Kent A.Clark Center for Global Markets,“Election economic policy ide

133、as,”Sept.10,2024.17.International Monetary Fund,“Regional economic outlook for Europe:A recovery short of Europes full potential,”October 2024.18.European Central Bank,“Financial stability review,”accessed Dec.12,2024.19.Spencer Feingold,“Europeans are clinging to their savings.What does it mean for

134、 growth in the European Union?”World Economic Forum,Oct.10,2024.20.Alexander Al-Haschimi and Tajda Spital,“The evolution of Chinas growth model:Challenges and long-term growth prospects,”European Central Bank,accessed Dec.12,2024.21.Bill Conerly,“Consumers will continue spending in 2024,”Forbes,Marc

135、h 1,2024.22.International Monetary Fund,“World economic outlook.”23.Barclays,“Food:US Nielsen insights(four weeks ending Sept.7,2024),”Sept.17,2024;Carla Casella,Yaakov Musheyev,and Morgan Morrissey,“High-grade and high-yield consumer,food,and retail 2025 outlook,”J.P.Morgan,accessed Dec.13,2024.24.

136、Mintel,“The role of innovation in the future of the consumer packaged goods industry,”accessed Dec.12,2024.25.Deloitte analysis of case examples from consumer industry companies;analysis of survey response implications from Deloitte 2025 Consumer Product Outlook survey.26.Analysis of Deloitte M&A Tr

137、ends Survey data from the consumer products industry subset of respondents.27.UBS Global Research and Evidence Lab,“Publicis.”28.Doug Gish,Stanley Porter,and Leon Pieters,“Unlocking the promise of cost optimization,”Deloitte Insights,Sept.9,2024.29.Deloitte analysis of financial data obtained throug

138、h S&P Capital IQ,November 2024.Endnotes20Ed JEd Johnson is a principal at Deloitte Consulting LLP,where his work focuses on retail and consumer products.He serves as the US Consulting lead for the customer strategy and strategy offerings in retail and consumer products.Johnson serves clients on comm

139、ercial topics such as commercial effectiveness,revenue management,and pricing and promotions strategy,and works with them to apply analytics to commercial decision-making and develop data-driven pricing and channel strategies,policies,and planning capabilities.Mike Manbymmanbydeloitte.co.ukA partner

140、 in our UK Strategy and Analytics practice,Mike Manby is a Retail and Consumer Products Strategy,Innovation,and Analytics leader,leading local and global digital transformation programs.He is a member of the UK Consumer and Retail Executive groups,with over 24 years of experience working with UK and

141、 global clients to help them transform their business models,become insight-driven,enable growth,embed sustainable change,and leverage data and digital.He has worked with a number of leading consumer compa-nies designing and implementing their value chain strategies such as consumer and customer eng

142、agement,hyperpersonalization,and value chain optimization.Evan SEvan Sheehan is the Retail,Wholesale&Distribution leader for Deloitte Global.In this role,he is responsible for developing the global sector strategy and integrating businesses and go-to-market solutions across the Deloitte network.Curr

143、ently,the Global Lead Client Service Partner for a leading retail organization in the United States,Sheehan has more than 20 years of experience serving a range of retail clients.Over the years,he has helped clients with service delivery transformation,technology integration,portal manage-ment,and e

144、nterprise transformation.Justin CJustin Cook is the research leader for the consumer products sector at Deloittes Consumer Industry Center,Deloitte Services LP.He also conducts cross-sector research for the center,examining issues such as how inflation,sustainability,and trust affect consumer behavi

145、or.With more than 20 years of experience in market research,management consulting,and technology,Cook asks challenging questions and helps clients understand how the world is changing.Cline Fenechcfenechdeloitte.co.ukCline Fenech is a research expert with over 20 years of market intelligence and con

146、sumer research experience predominantly focused on researching trends in the consumer industry.At Deloitte,she provides insights through the origination of research in the form of briefings,POVs,and white papers.She is the lead author of the Deloitte Consumer Tracker,Deloittes own consumer confidenc

147、e survey.About the authors212025 Consumer Products Industry OutlookAbout the Deloitte Consumer Industry CenterConsumers and the companies that serve them face a rapidly changing world,altering what,how,and where we buy products and services.Both consumers and businesses are buying into better produc

148、ts,services,and solutions to achieve their goals.The Deloitte Consumer Industry Center delivers insights to help automotive,consumer products,retail,transportation,hospitality,and services sector executives better understand their business environment,its direction,and the choices in front of them.A

149、cknowledgmentsThe authors would like to thank Abigail Slark,Siddharth Mishra,Brijesh R.G.,and Sanjay Vadrevu for their contributions to this article.They would additionally acknowledge the editorial,creative,and promotional support of Shambhavi Shah,Abrar Khan,Harry Wedel,Meghan Gragtmans,Manogna Ma

150、rthi,Harriet Orr Ewing,and Sabrina Pietryga.22Continue the conversationIndustry leadershipEd JohnsonPrincipal|Deloitte Consulting LLP+1 305 372 3104|Ed Johnson is a principal with Deloitte Consulting LLP.He serves as the US consulting lead for the customer strategy and strategy offerings in retail a

151、nd consumer products.Evan SheehanGlobal Retail,Wholesale&Distribution leader|Principal|Deloitte Consulting+1 617 437 2734|Evan Sheehan is the Retail,Wholesale&Distribution leader for Deloitte Global.In this role,he is responsible for developing the global sector strategy and integrating businesses a

152、nd go-to-market solutions across the Deloitte network.Mike ManbyPartner|Consulting|Client,Strategy,Innovation and Growth leader Member of UK Consumer Executive,Clients,Insights and Industry Sponsor SAMA Strategy and Innovation leader+44(0)20 7303 6226|mmanbydeloitte.co.uk Mike Manby a partner in Del

153、oitte UKs Strategy and Analytics practice.Justin CookUS Consumer Products research leader+1 617 437 2071|Justin Cook is the research leader for the consumer products sector within Deloittes Consumer Industry Center,Deloitte Services LP.He also conducts cross-sector research for the center,examining

154、issues such as how inflation,sustainability,and trust affect consumer behavior.ContributorsEditorial:Abrar Khan,Shambhavi Shah,Cintia Cheong,Debashree Mandal,and Pubali DeyCreative:Jim Slatton,Harry Wedel,Pooja Lnu,Govindh Raj,Molly Piersol,and Sylvia ChangDeployment:Atira Anderson Cover artwork:Jim

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