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1、Global Macro Trends June 202414.3InsightsOpportunity KnocksMid-Year Outlook for 2024 Contents 3 Introduction 11 What Is Changing or Being Amplified?14 Six Areas Where We Differ From Consensus 17 Asset Allocation and Key Themes 17 Picks and Pans 23 Buying Complexity,Selling Simplicity in the Equity M

2、arkets 24 Collateral-Based Cash Flows 25 Productivity 26 Security of Everything 26 Intra-Asia 27 Intersection of AI and Energy Supply 28 Demographic Challenges to Retirement Security 29 Global/Regional Economic Forecasts 30 U.S.36 Europe 40 China 43 Japan 46 Capital Markets 46 S&P 500 48 Global Inte

3、rest Rates 49 U.S.Interest Rates 51 Europe Interest Rates 52 Oil 54 Frequently Asked Questions 54 Where do you see relative value in Credit?55 Do you still believe in a higher resting heart rate for inflation?59 How are you thinking about the U.S.election,including impacts on fiscal policy and the T

4、reasury market?61 What is the outlook for U.S.consumer spending?64 How are you thinking about expected returns and portfolio construction going forward?67 EM:Do you still favor EM Debt over EM Equities?69 Key ConclusionsHenry H.McVeyHead of Global Macro&Asset Allocation,CIO of KKR Balance S David Mc

5、Nellis Frances Lim Aidan Corcoran Changchun Hua Paula Campbell Roberts Racim Allouani Kristopher Novell Brian Leung Rebecca Ramsey Tony Buckley Bola Okunade Rachel Li Thibaud Monmirel Yifan Zhao Ezra Max Miguel Montoya Asim Ali Patrick Holt Patrycja Koszykowska Koontze Jang Allen Liu Insights|Volume

6、 14.3 3Opportunity KnocksMid-Year Outlook for 2024Despite intensifying political uncertainty,heightened geopolitical tensions,and volatile commodity prices,we continue to see compelling investment opportunities across the global macro landscape.Accelerating AI demand for electricity,reorientation of