银行业区域性银行战略研究（五）：理财业务深度研究资管新生态下的中小银行理财破局-20200724[25页].pdf

《银行业区域性银行战略研究（五）：理财业务深度研究资管新生态下的中小银行理财破局-20200724[25页].pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《银行业区域性银行战略研究（五）：理财业务深度研究资管新生态下的中小银行理财破局-20200724[25页].pdf（25页珍藏版）》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。

1、 1 / 20200724 S0570514040002 0755-23952763 S0570520050002 0755-82492038 1: 2020.07 2/: 2020.07 3/: 2020.07 Wind 壩 壺 塣 硣 1 23 4IT EPS () P/E () () () 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 000001 CH 13.50 15.5017.82 1.45 1.64 1.89 2.19 9.31 8.23 7.14 6.16 601838 CH 8.21 8.959.85 1.54 1.77 2.09

2、 2.48 5.33 4.64 3.93 3.31 600036 CH 34.60 38.7641.35 3.68 4.15 4.79 5.56 9.40 8.34 7.22 6.22 601009 CH 7.76 9.379.81 1.24 1.40 1.62 1.90 6.26 5.54 4.79 4.08 601128 CH 7.41 9.299.42 0.65 0.75 0.88 1.06 11.40 9.88 8.42 6.99 601166 CH 15.66 20.3121.35 3.17 3.43 3.81 4.28 4.94 4.57 4.11 3.66 (13) (3) 7

3、16 26 19/07 19/09 19/11 20/01 20/03 20/05 (%) 300 / | 20200724 2 . 4 壺 . 5 . 5 . 6 . 6 . 7 . 8 . 8 . 9 . 9 . 10 . 11 . 11 . 12 . 12 . 13 IT . 14 . 15 . 15 . 17 . 19 600036 CH38.7641.35 . 19 601166 CH20.3121.35+ . 19 000001 CH15.5017.82 . 20 601128 CH9.299.42 . 20 601009 CH9.379.81 . 20 601838 CH8.95

4、9.85 . 21 . 23 mNpQnNtMsNtRuMrOqMsNpMbRaOaQnPoOoMpPkPrRtMeRoMtM6MnNvMwMoNtMMYqNrN / | 20200724 3 1 . 4 2 . 5 3 . 5 4 2020723 . 6 5 . 6 6 20203 . 7 7 20203 . 7 8 . 8 9 . 8 10 . 9 11 2019 . 10 12 . 10 13 . 11 14 . 11 15 . 12 16 . 12 17 AUM . 13 18 2019 14 19 . 14 20 2014 . 15 21 2014 . 15 22 . 16 23 .

5、 16 24 . 17 25 . 17 26 2019 AUM/ . 17 27 . 18 28 2015 . 18 29 2010 AUM . 18 30 . 18 31 . 21 32 . 21 / | 20200724 4 壬 +桱 IT 2019 7 2020 6 壬 1 壺 IT IT / | 20200724 5 壺 硣 塣 硣 2 + 桢20192019222 磬 3 2017.07.15 徭 2017.10.18 徭 2018.03.05 M2 2019.02.22 2019.03.05 2020.01.03 2020.05.22 岢 , / | 20200724 6 + 棬

6、4 2020723 AIC 6 5 5 6 6 2 3 5 2 4 12 4 7 4 5 2 3 5 8 134 4 / 1 6 / / / 15 22 1478 / / / 1 / / / 1 10 棬 棬 棬 5 1 5 5 1 侲 24侲 / | 20200724 7 + İ 6 2020 3 7 2020 3 16 15 15 15 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 7 3 3 3 2 1 11 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 / | 20200724 8 10001000 1 2 34 8 滮 1 齨 档 20206

7、4 143 201849% 100% 9 1 涨 桢 35% 35% 4% / | 20200724 9 齨 IT 10 2020 6 1009, 1000 2019 9 谴 跽 跽棬 衣齨 IT 裬 齨 齨 / | 20200724 10 11 2019 1 2壬 30 20 20 飬 MOM 12 2019 500 2019 12 300 2019 6200 13.3% 飬 1010 613 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 / | 20200724 11 13 600 1010 IT 14 輰 0.3%-0.5% 0.40% 6% 0.0

8、24% 100-160 130 80 80 0.1%-0.2% 0.15% 50-60%60% 6240 607 +-=0 / | 20200724 12 15 IT 16 32 27 26 14 14 12 6 3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 / | 20200724 13 AUM AUM 100% 17 AUM AUM5005000 AUM 濪20197 2019 12 55% 45% 11 IT 飬 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500

9、 5,000 M& T TR UI ST PN C AUM AUM/ / | 20200724 14 18 2019 2019 0.18% 19.03% 0.77% 0.49% 0.53% 0.46% ING 13.03% / 6.54%/3.00% 3.00% 14.87% 18.58% 19.99% 15.31% 2.55% 11.95% 17.99% 14.66% 14.01% 13.85% 17.88% 17.99% 19.95% 4.89% 4.84% / 15.09%/3.77% 棬 IT 棬 2019 1140顣棬 IT 衢 19 2019-06 2019-11 2019-11

10、40 2020-06 2020-04 衢飬 2020-04 2019-09 塢 2019-12 濪 2020-04 2020-07 2020-07 / | 20200724 15 20192014-2019 CARG36% 3700 1000 20192020 2 20 2014 21 2014 棬 棬 + 2014 飬 徭 2008 1+1+N 2011 3 2019 40 89% 215 341 508 510 715 101058.3% 49.0% 0.5% 40.1% 41.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 200 400 600 800 1,00

11、0 1,200 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0.4 1.6 3.1 3.8 4.9 7.0 2.1 2.5 3.2 2.6 2.4 3.4 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.4 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.3 1.5 1.4 3.3 2.3 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.4 300.0% 100.0% 20.8% 29.2% 42.71% -50% 50% 150% 250% 350% 0 5 10 15 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 / | 20200724 16 22 ISP Eurizon Capital 13.85%

12、 Rosario Strano 20124ISP Marco Mussita 20119ISP LCF 200 Tingjie ZHANG 20202 2019 棬Wind 201916 200 2019 23 1 5 100 渴 档棬 棬浥 ABS 棻 FOFMOM / | 20200724 17 24 2020/6/24 98 4.40% 97.95% 4900 2020/6/23 99 4.10% 48.37% 4961 ABS 32.25% 浥 11.49% 2020/6/24 365 4.32% _ 45.35% 12543 19.13% 浥 14.35% _ 12.65% 8.13

13、% 2020/5/6 188 4.40% 50.57% 5933 38.26% FRC2020 6 1283 23FRC 顣 AUM AUM/FRC PB mrq 1.92 PB 25 26 2019 AUM/ Wind 棬 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 -2020Q1 129.9% 88.0% 52.4% 36.6% 18.2% 12.1% 21.4% 20.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% AUM/-2019 -2019 / | 20200724 18 27 PB(MRQ)

14、 177 1.92 2,842 1.23 2,018 0.84 1,048 0.60 1,029 0.64 964 1.62 960 0.51 HDFC 870 - 799 1.26 542 1.19 526 0.37 880 0.81 202072 Wind FRC 2015FRC 104 FRC 棬磬 棬俪 Luminous CapitalConstellation Advisors 120 AUM 28 2015 29 2010 AUM 20206 Bloomberg 棬 30 / 2010 2010 Luminous Capital Holdings 2012 2012 Constel

15、lation Advisors 2015 2 2 3 4 4 9 15 16 19 30 0 10 20 30 40 First 2015 18 20 31 42 53 72 84 107 126 151 138 11% 55% 35% 26% 36% 17% 27% 18% 20% -9% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20Q1 AUM / | 20200724 19 600036 CH38

16、.7641.35 2019 53.7% 56.7%2020Q1 68.5% 13% 佨棬2020ROE 棬2020Q1 1.11% 450% 档 2020-202212.8%/15.3%/16.2%EPS4.15/4.79/5.56 2020 BVPS 25.84 PB1.34 2020 PB1.51.6 38.7641.35 601166 CH20.3121.35+ 棬 + NAFMII 201912FICC 棬2017 2019 3% 2020-2022 8.2%/11.0%/12.3%EPS3.43/3.81/4.28 2020BVPS26.04 PB0.602020PB0.780.82

17、 20.3121.35 / | 20200724 20 000001 CH15.5017.82 2016 壬 2020 Q1 PPOP Q191% 3AUM 7.7%9.8% AUM6.1pct2.0pct 2020-202213.2%/15.1%/15.5%EPS1.64/1.89/2.19 2020BVPS15.50 PB0.872020PB1.001.15 15.5017.82 601128 CH9.299.42 +2019 3.41%2019 +15.6% 6432 63 10.5 33.33% 侭 61 2020-202215.8%/17.0%/20.1%EPS0.75/0.88/1

18、.06 2020BVPS 6.73 PB1.102020PB1.381.40 9.299.42 601009 CH9.379.81 2019 30% 2020 2020-202212.7%/15.8%/16.8%EPS1.40/1.62/1.90 2020BVPS8.92PB 0.87 2020PB1.05-1.10 9.379.81 / | 20200724 21 601838 CH8.959.85 2020 GDP -3.0% 2020 1-3 -0.7%-16.4% 20194.75% 3 2019-5bp 1.43%0.87%+ 3 2020-202214.9%/18.1%/19.0%

19、EPS1.77/2.09/2.48 2020BVPS11.19 PB0.732020PB0.80.88 8.959.85 31 EPS P/E (x) 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 000001 CH 13.50 15.5017.82 2620 1.45 1.64 1.89 2.19 9.31 8.23 7.14 6.16 601838 CH 8.21 8.959.85 297 1.54 1.77 2.09 2.48 5.33 4.64 3.93 3.31 600036 CH 34.60 38.7641.35 8699 3.68 4

20、.15 4.79 5.56 9.40 8.34 7.22 6.22 601009 CH 7.76 9.379.81 777 1.24 1.40 1.62 1.90 6.26 5.54 4.79 4.08 601128 CH 7.41 9.299.42 203 0.65 0.75 0.88 1.06 11.40 9.88 8.42 6.99 601166 CH 15.66 20.3121.35 3253 3.17 3.43 3.81 4.28 4.94 4.57 4.11 3.66 EPS棬2020.07.24 Wind 32 601988 CH - 601328 CH 6.276.77 601

21、658 CH 6.276.58 600036 CH 38.7641.35 600919 CH - 002142 CH 30.4032.04 600926 CH 9.8811.36 601009 CH 9.37-9.81 601577 CH - 002948 CH - 002936 CH - 601838 CH 8.959.85 601169 CH 5.836.32 601997 CH 9.249.86 002966 CH - 600928 CH - 601229 CH 13.7115.15 601128 CH 9.299.42 002839 CH 6.397.00 600908 CH 7.82

22、8.42 002807 CH 4.74-5.02 601860 CH - 601077 CH - 002958 CH - 603323 CH - 9668 HK - / | 20200724 22 1578 HK - 1963 HK - 3698 HK - 1551 HK - 6138 HK - 2066 HK - 1216 HK - 5 HK - 2888 HK - 2356 HK - 11 HK - FRC US - JPM US - BAC US - C US - WFC US - RY US - HDFC HDB US - TD US - USB US - MUFG US - UBS

23、US - DBS SP - ING ING US - SAN US - UOB SP - BNP US - OCBC SP - CBA AU - ANZ AU - ISP IM - HLBK MK - BNS US - M&T MTB US - TRUIST TFC US - SIVB US - PNC PNC US - KEY US - HBAN US - PBCT US - RLD XW - CSGKF US - MS US - GS US - BCS US - JEF US - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

24、 / | 20200724 23 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Bloomberg 1. 2020 2. / | 20200724 24 彨 淢 档 汾İ汾 鲢 顣 裬仯 粢 淢鲻/ 鲻/ 沢 桢 涨FINRA 棬 FINRA FINRA 沢 档 FINRA / | 20200724 25 / 12 144A /淢 12 /淢3 / 1% / 淢6300 淢 6 300 20% 5%-20% -5%5% 5%-20% 20% 2281/210019 28A18 100032 绰86 25 83389999 /棺86 25 83387521 绰86 10 63211166/棺86 10 63211275 ht- ht- 599910/518017 18E23/200120 绰86 755 82493932 /棺86 755 82492062 绰86 21 28972098 /棺86 21 28972068 ht- ht- 91320000704041011J ()(FINRA) CRD#.298809 绰: 212-763-8160 : huataihtsc- : 917-725-9702 http:/www.htsc- 2020