江丰电子-公司首次覆盖报告：国产溅射靶材龙头未来前景可期-20200721[22页].pdf

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1、/ 1 / 22 300666.SZ 20200721 2020/7/21 () 64.36 () 75.80/36.11 () 143.67 () 109.52 () 2.23 () 1.70 3(%) 367.21 裨 S0790520070002 衰 İ 2020-2022EPS 0.36/0.46/0.59PE 177/139/109衰 PVDPVD 2020 200 2019 47.7202075.1 2022 207 豸 28-7nm 硢治 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E () 650 825 970 1,176 1,468 YOY(%) 18.1 27

2、.0 17.6 21.2 24.8 () 59 64 81 103 131 YOY(%) -8.2 9.1 26.7 27.1 27.1 (%) 29.6 31.1 30.8 30.9 30.8 (%) 9.1 7.8 8.4 8.8 8.9 ROE(%) 9.5 9.2 10.6 12.1 13.5 EPS(/) 0.26 0.29 0.36 0.46 0.59 P/E() 244.3 223.8 176.7 139.1 109.4 P/B() 23.4 21.0 19.1 17.1 15.0 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 2019-07 2019-11 2020-03 300

3、2 / 22 1 . 4 1.1 塢塢 . 4 1.2 . 5 2 . 6 2.1 . 6 2.2 . 12 3 . 14 3.1 . 14 3.2 . 17 4 . 18 5 . 19 . 20 1 2005 . 4 2 . 5 3 . 5 4 2019 . 5 5 . 6 6 . 6 7 . 6 8 . 6 9 . 7 10 2020200 . 8 11 塢 . 8 12 . 9 13 . 10 14 . 10 15 . 10 16 . 11 17 GW . 11 18 200GW . 11 19 GW . 11 20 . 12 21 . 13 22 . 13 23 . 14 24 . 1

4、4 25 鲼 . 17 1 . 4 mNrOqQqPoRpNvNsNtPoRmPaQaOaQnPnNoMrRiNpPoRfQpNqP6MrRzQuOrNnQNZmPvM 3 / 22 2 . 7 3 . 8 4 . 15 5 . 15 6 . 17 7 . 18 8 貿. 18 4 / 22 1 1.1 塢塢 2005 4 2017 6 LCD 壨 12005 桢 1 AL 300mm AL G8.5 Target Plate 270.6*203.2*19.05 AVIZA Sigma Target Durasource with CboreDurasource without Cbore T

5、argetTi IMP Vectra Target 200 SIP Ti 300mm IMP TiMonlithic 300mm 14nm ( SIP Ta 300mmDurasource 300mm Ta SIP Encore Coil 300mm 16nm LCD CMP RetainerRing棨Pad 桢 5 / 22 202056 618328.3% 35.0%緶 500 2009 2 桢 1.2 20152019 2.9/0.248.3 /0.64CAGR29.8%/27.8% 1 2 LCD 2018 2017 43.33% 3 42019 Wind Wind 2.9 4.4 5

6、.5 6.5 8.3 18.7% 52.2% 24.2% 18.1% 27.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 YOY 0.24 0.55 0.64 0.59 0.64 24.9% 130.4% 16.6% -8.2% 9.1% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 YOY 6 / 22 201971% LCD ()2019 LCD 10%() ()201972% 5 6 Wind Wind 32%2019 31.1% 2019

7、7.7% 7 8 Wind Wind 2 2.1 , 3.0 , 36% , 1.8 , 21% , 1.1 , 14% LCD , 0.8 , 10% , 1.6 , 19% 2019 , 5.9 , 72% , 2.4 , 28% 2019 31.7% 31.8% 31.7% 29.6% 31.1% 8.0% 12.3% 11.6% 9.0% 7.7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 24.0% 17.7% 19.9% 21.1% 25.6% 6.2% 5.7% 6.0% 6.8% 6.5% 16.6% 11.5% 11.7% 13.6% 17.2% 0% 5%

8、 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 7 / 22 99.9%-99.999% (PVD) 棬 岢棬 9 PVD PVDPVD CVDPVD 2 棬 岢 顢 2017 132.5 2020 200 8 / 22 10 2020200 涼趨 11塢 3 硢 ITO ITO 洢 衢 170 200+ 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 ) , 33.8% , 28.6% , 18.5% , 11.4% , 7.7% 9 / 22 顢 幤 粻 5N99.999% 2019 47.7 2018 35.1 35.9% 车 202275.1 12 缫

9、 似 ITO 35.1 47.7 54.9 63.6 75.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 10 / 22 賧 20181.39 9.9% 2022 206.5 13 14 PVD 廯 15 11152 12667.4 13924.2 13% 14% 10% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 YOY 99.4 120.7 150 175.3 206.5 0 50 100 150 200 250 11 / 22 IRENA 2011-20

10、18201897.3GW 201725.0% 20251722.1GW 16 17GW (IRENA) (IRENA) 200GW 2019 30.1GWCPIA2020 49GW50GW 18200GW 19GW CPIA İ ITO AZO AluminumZincOxide 99.99% 赲ITO AZO 4.623.3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 GW 692.1 830.5 996.6 1,195.9 1,435.1 1,722.1 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1

11、,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 0 50 100 150 200 250 GW 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 12 / 22 30% 20 2.2 豸 幤İ峧 İ幤 2019CR480%İ 30%Johnson Mattey 20%20%10% 0 5 10 15 20 25 13 / 22 21 棬 22 863 豸02 JX nippon, 30% Honeywell, 20%TOSOH, 20% Praxair, 10% , 20% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 201

12、9 14 / 22 3 3.1 / 2015 0.24/8.1%20190.60 /7.2% /2017 91/12.3%2019 135/16.0% 2019 264 217 47 2 1 23 24 Wind Wind 2015 2019 50074 863 1863102 0.24 0.27 0.32 0.47 0.60 8.1% 6.1% 5.9% 7.2% 7.2% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 ( (%) 91 122 135 12.3% 15.5% 16.0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8

13、% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 15 / 22 4 1 99.9999% 99.999%99.99% 2 豸 3 99% 100% 99.9% 4 豸 繫100.4 6 İ 顢 5 1 863 2008 糬 2 863 2005 / 3 02 2011 45-28nm 45-28nmCu 45-28nmCu TaCoNi 45-28nmCuCo NiTa 16 / 22 4 02 2009 300mm 300mm AlTiTa 5 2008 PVD / / 6 2013 / / 7 2009 5 / / 8 2012 1

14、/ 9 02 2016 20-14nm / 顢 2-3 仯 鲼 缰İ UMC SONYTOSHIBARenesasMicronHHGrace 壨STM裨InfineonBOE磨CSOTSunPower 17 / 22 25鲼 6 硢塢衢 SunPowerAUO SunPower 顢 3.2 28-7nm28-7nm TaCuTiAl 湥 7nm 28-7nm 300 4N5 300滮 2019 741.89 GDMSLECO SEM-EBSD(ICP-OES)LPC 豸 18 / 22 7 1 400 10,876.00 6,686.78 24 2 300 4,021.00 4,021.00

15、24 3 5,504.00 5,504.00 24 4 5,000.00 5,000.00 / 25,401.00 21,211.78 / 顢 400 豸 仯滮豸 裬豸 202012 31 2.36 4858.6 4 裺 İ 2020-2022 EPS 0.36/0.46/0.59 PE 177/139/109 衰 8貿 ( EPS PE 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 300263.SZ 8.67 0.21 0.26 0.32 0.39 41.36 33.89 26.89 22.37 600206.SH 14.97 0.12 0

16、.18 0.25 0.42 129.29 82.30 58.94 35.31 19 / 22 ( EPS PE 002371.SZ 182.00 0.64 0.99 1.45 2.00 285.52 183.95 125.30 90.86 603986.SH 241.30 1.56 2.28 2.99 3.93 154.52 105.76 80.79 61.33 300604.SZ 31.59 0.05 0.28 0.43 0.60 623.86 111.63 73.48 52.77 603690.SH 46.52 0.33 0.75 1.12 1.59 142.87 62.43 41.58

17、29.28 229.57 96.66 67.83 48.65 300666.SZ 64.36 0.31 0.36 0.46 0.59 204.76 176.73 139.06 109.40 Wind Wind 5 硢治 20 / 22 () 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E () 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 902 824 985 1311 1528 650 825 970 1176 1468 514 251 418 507 632 457 569 671 813 1015 135 209 195 295 317 3 5 7 7 9 2

18、 4 3 5 5 44 53 63 76 95 7 11 11 16 17 42 82 84 93 106 233 325 334 465 532 47 60 70 85 106 11 24 24 24 24 5 16 12 20 30 542 642 698 779 901 7 -8 0 0 0 10 11 11 11 12 12 33 21 22 25 362 389 446 526 637 0 0 0 0 0 21 34 33 33 33 -3 3 -0 -0 1 148 208 208 209 220 0 -0 -0 -0 -0 1444 1466 1683 2090 2429 55

19、64 83 104 134 781 669 813 1130 1351 7 1 3 4 3 550 451 594 829 1018 1 0 1 1 1 122 179 176 254 283 61 65 86 107 136 109 39 43 47 50 3 1 5 4 5 47 107 107 108 108 58 64 81 102 130 15 38 38 39 39 -1 -0 -1 -1 -1 32 69 69 69 69 59 64 81 103 131 828 775 920 1238 1460 EBITDA 116 135 152 192 244 2 8 7 6 5 EPS

20、() 0.26 0.29 0.36 0.46 0.59 219 219 223 223 223 189 206 206 206 206 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 205 256 321 402 506 613 683 756 846 965 (%) 18.1 27.0 17.6 21.2 24.8 1444 1466 1683 2090 2429 (%) -22.9 17.2 29.4 24.6 28.7 (%) -8.2 9.1 26.7 27.1 27.1 (%) 29.6 31.1 30.8 30.9 30.8 (%) 9.1 7.8 8.4 8.8 8

21、.9 () 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E ROE(%) 9.5 9.2 10.6 12.1 13.5 5 95 140 19 165 ROIC(%) 5.9 6.9 7.0 7.4 8.1 58 64 81 102 130 37 48 44 55 69 (%) 57.4 52.9 54.7 59.2 60.1 5 16 12 20 30 (%) 27.7 44.6 38.1 51.6 52.3 3 -3 0 0 -1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 -105 -85 3 -158 -62 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 7 56 0 0 0 -13

22、7 -159 -101 -136 -190 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 126 148 57 81 122 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 -11 -12 0 -0 -1 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 -22 -22 -44 -55 -69 () 492 -195 -15 -30 -39 () 0.26 0.29 0.36 0.46 0.59 505 -99 0 0 0 () 0.02 0.42 0.63 0.09 0.74 -75 23 1 0 1 () 2.75 3.06 3.36 3.77 4.30 0 0 4 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 P/E 244.

23、3 223.8 176.7 139.1 109.4 62 -136 -20 -30 -39 P/B 23.4 21.0 19.1 17.1 15.0 366 -257 24 -146 -63 EV/EBITDA 124.9 108.8 96.2 77.2 60.9 21 / 22 201771 涨R4 C4C5 C4C5 档 Buy 20% outperform 5%20% Neutral 5%5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612A 300 500 飻 統棬 裬 漰 22 / 22 浱 档 顣 顣 漰 漰漰 漰 İ鱾汣İ 17881 10 200120 20301 45 518000 18C216 100044 1B5 710065