书签 分享 收藏 举报 版权申诉 / 39

2020年疫情后全球财富管理报告 - 摩根士丹利&奥纬咨询(英文版)(39页).pdf

  • 上传人:风亭
  • 文档编号:19783
  • 上传时间:2020-09-27
  • 格式:PDF
  • 页数:39
  • 大小:2.27MB
  • 配套讲稿:

    如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。

    特殊限制:

    部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。

    关 键  词:
    2020年疫情后全球财富管理报告 摩根士丹利&奥纬咨询英文版39页 2020 疫情 全球 财富 管理 报告 摩根士丹利 咨询 英文 39
    资源描述:

    《2020年疫情后全球财富管理报告 - 摩根士丹利&奥纬咨询(英文版)(39页).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《2020年疫情后全球财富管理报告 - 摩根士丹利&奥纬咨询(英文版)(39页).pdf(39页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告文库上搜索。

    1、BLUEPAPER M Wealth Management | Global After the Storm Oliver Wyman is a global leader in management consulting. For more information, visit . Oliver Wyman is not authorized or regulated by the PRA or the FCA and is not providing investment advice. Oliver Wyman authors are not research analysts and 。

    2、are neither FCA nor FINRA registered. Oliver Wyman authors have only contributed their expertise on business strategy within the report. Oliver Wymans views are clearly delineated. The securities and valuation sections of this report are the work of Morgan Stanley only and not Oliver Wyman. For disc。

    3、losures specifically pertaining to Oliver Wyman, please see the Disclosure Section located at the end of this report. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest t。

    4、hat could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Covid 19 has permanently changed the way Wealth Managers deliver advice and serve their clients. To drive outperformance over th。

    5、e next 5+ years, firms should double down on technology investments, strategically cut costs, build differentiated product offerings and consider inorganic opportunities. BLUEPAPER M Authors OLIVER WYMAN Kai Upadek PARTNER +44 20 7852 7657 Kai.U Christian Edelmann PARTNER +44 20 7852 7557 Christian.。

    6、E Bradley Kellum PARTNER +1 646 364 8425 Bradley.K Lian Zerafa PARTNER +1 416 433 4976 Lian.Z Julian Gorski +1 212 345 2062 Julian.G Joao Miguel Rodrigues +49 30 3999 4558 JoaoMiguel.R Philip Schroeder +44 20 7852 7428 Philip.S MORGAN STANLEY Betsy L. Graseck, CFA1 EQUITY ANALYST +1 212 761 8473 Bet。

    7、sy.G Magdalena L Stoklosa, CFA2 EQUITY ANALYST +44 20 7425 3933 Magdalena.S Nick Lord3 EQUITY ANALYST +65 6834 6746 Nick.L Michael J. Cyprys, CFA, CPA1 EQUITY ANALYST +1 212 761 7619 Michael.C Manan Gosalia1 EQUITY ANALYST +1 212 761 4092 Manan.G Izabel Dobreva2 EQUITY ANALYST +44 20 7677-5006 Izabe。

    8、l.D Ryan Kenny1 RESEARCH ASSOCIATE +1 212 761 1664 Ryan.K 1 Morgan Stanley given the uncertainty we model three scenarios for global HNW wealth growth After a golden decade in which Wealth Managers benefited from more than 8 percent annual wealth growth on average, Covid-19 has introduced a differen。

    9、t reality. The global economy has entered a period of significant uncertainty. As a result, we have modelled three scenarios for HNW wealth growth: lOur base case, “Recession and rebound”, sees policy responses effective in containing the pandemic, while rate cuts and fiscal stimuli support the econ。

    10、omy to drive a U-shaped or similar recovery. Executive Summary lOur bull case, “Accelerated rebound”, sees only modest upside to our base case, with a stronger near-term rebound in asset prices leading to a significantly improved picture for wealth in 2020. Longer-term, the economic outlook and asse。

    11、t price path remain largely in-line with our base case. lOur bear case, “Sustained downturn”, sees policy measures unable to support the global economy, with a significant down- turn in 2020 and a slow recovery thereafter. Exhibit 2: Global HNW wealth: base, bull, and bear case (2018-2024, USD Trill。

    12、ion) 1819 Growth 19-20E Growth 19-24E Growth 19-20E Growth 19-24E Growth 19-20E Growth 19-24E Growth 10.0%-4.0%5.1%0.9%5.6%-10.2%1.0% 72 79 76 101 80 104 71 83 20182019202020242020202420202024 Base Bull Bear Note: HNW investors are defined as households with financial assets greater or equal to USD 。

    13、1 million. HNW wealth represents financial assets owned by HNWIs, including investable assets (deposits, equities, bonds, mutual funds and alternatives), excluding assets held in insurance policies, pensions and direct real estate or any other real assets. Source: Oliver Wyman Wealth Management Mode。

    14、l For the purposes of this report, we focus our analysis on our base case, “Recession and rebound”. However, given the high degree of uncertainty in the current environment, Wealth Managers must adopt flexible, scenario-based approaches to strategic planning. Institutions that have not invested in b。

    15、uilding flexible forecasting processes are facing pressures internally and externally to answer increasingly complex what-ifs for their businesses. Traditional plan- ning processes are often manual, labor intensive, and disconnected from financial resource considerations. With economic conditions un。

    16、certain and volatile, nimble planning infrastructure is crucial to inform strategic decisions and management actions amidst uncer- tainty. BLUEPAPER M MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH7 Our base case sees global HNW wealth lose more than a year of growth vs. pre-Covid-19 forecasts In our base case we expect g。

    17、lobal HNW wealth to fall by 4 percent in 2020, before rebounding to growth in 2021. Oliver Wymans pre- Covid-19 estimates saw wealth growing consistently at 6 percent from 2019 onward. As a result, we expect Covid-19 to represent roughly one lost year of wealth growth. Exhibit 3: Global HNW wealth: 。

    18、base, bull, and bear cases vs. pre-Covid-19 esti- mate (2019-2024, USD Trillion) $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 201920202021202220232024 Base Case Pre-Covid-19 estimate Bull Case Bear Case Note: Pre-Covid-19 estimate made based on inputs (GDP growth, asset performance, etc.) retrieved at year-end 2019. Post-。

    19、Covid-19 forecast based on inputs retrieved beginning of April 2020. Source: Oliver Wyman Wealth Management Model The growth outlook for assets under management (AUM) in developed markets is slower As global wealth recovers from this lost year, we expect the AUM growth outlook to shift further away 。

    20、from developed markets. While industry AUM grew 7 percent annually in developed markets in the five years prior to Covid-19, we expect slowed growth of 3-4 percent annually in these markets from 2019-24. Amplifying the impact of reduced asset performance, we anticipate that bankruptcies, along with 。

    21、muted executive pay, will impair overall NNM growth. By con- trast, emerging market AUM growth is likely to slow in the short- term, but we expect a stronger rebound relative to developed markets driven primarily by NNM on the back of gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Exhibit 4: AUM performance v。

    22、s. NNM base case (2019-24 CAGR, percent of AUM) North AmericaWestern EuropeJapanChinaLatin AmericaOther APACMiddle East given the uncertainty we model three scenarios for global HNW wealth After a golden decade in which Wealth Managers benefited from more than 8 percent annual wealth growth on avera。

    23、ge, Covid-19 has introduced a different reality. The global economy has entered a period of significant uncertainty: assets have re-priced, interest rates have dropped, and market volatility has increased. As a result, Wealth Managers underlying revenue drivers face significant chal- lenges. The dur。

    24、ation of the pandemic, the policy response, and the extent to which it causes lasting economic damage is uncertain. As a result, we have modelled three scenarios for the growth of HNW wealth over the next five years: State of the Industry lOur base case, “Recession and rebound”, sees policy response。

    25、s effective in containing the pandemic, while rate cuts and fiscal stimuli support the economy to drive a U-shaped or similar shaped recovery. In this scenario, Covid-19 will set back global HNW wealth levels by more than a year from our pre-Covid-19 forecasts. lOur bull case, “Accelerated rebound”,。

    26、 sees only modest upside to our base case, with a stronger near-term rebound in asset prices, due to prolonged central bank support, leading to a sig- nificantly better picture for wealth in 2020. After 1 percent wealth growth in 2020, the longer-term economic outlook and asset price path remain lar。

    27、gely in-line with our base case. lOur bear case, “Sustained downturn”, sees policy measures unable to support the global economy. This outlook anticipates a significant downturn in 2020 with a slow recovery thereafter. This scenario would imply a four-year horizon before global HNW wealth returns to。

    28、 2019 levels, with HNW wealth decreasing 10 percent in 2020. Exhibit 13: Global private HNW wealth: base, bull, and bear case (2018-2024, USD Trillion) 1819 Growth 19-20E Growth 19-24E Growth 19-20E Growth 19-24E Growth 19-20E Growth 19-24E Growth 10.0%-4.0%5.1%0.9%5.6%-10.2%1.0% 72 79 76 101 80 104。

    29、 71 83 20182019202020242020202420202024 Base Bull Bear Source: Oliver Wyman Wealth Management Model For the purposes of this report, we focus our analysis on our base case, “Recession and rebound”. However, the high levels of uncer- tainty in the macroeconomic outlook increase the importance of deve。

    30、loping flexible planning approaches for Wealth Managers. At most Wealth Managers, strategic planning and budgeting pro- cesses are behind the times, relying on resource-intensive, often dis- connected manual processes. Given the uncertain outlook, these BLUEPAPER M 14 processes have taken on increas。

    31、ed importance from management teams and regulators asking for answers to important what-if ques- tions. This exacerbates the demand on already-burdened resources and puts management teams at risk of flying blind. Given this rapidly evolving landscape, the planning infrastructure that informs managem。

    32、ent agendas must adapt to be equally nimble. This requires a shift from static forecasting approaches to a contin- uous planning process where forecasts are constantly up to date. It also requires investment in integrated planning infrastructure, bringing forecasting models and calculations online t。

    33、o enable driv- ers-based analysis of internal and external impacts to the business for example, those outlined later in this report. To move forward, Wealth managers should assess their current planning capabilities, accelerate their in-flight capability upgrades, and define a long-term path to tran。

    34、sform their planning approaches. Our base case sees global HNW wealth lose more than a year of growth vs. pre-Covid-19 forecasts In our base case we expect global HNW wealth to fall by 4 percent or $3.1 trillion in 2020 before rebounding to growth in 2021. Oliver Wymans pre-Covid-19 estimates saw we。

    35、alth growing consistently at 6 percent from 2019 onward, with HNW wealth reaching $85 trillion in 2020. Our base case now projects wealth to reach only $83 trillion in 2021. As a result, we expect Covid-19 to represent roughly one lost year of wealth growth. Exhibit 14: Global HNW wealth: base, bull。

    36、, and bear cases vs. pre-Covid-19 esti- mate (2019-2024, USD Trillion) Source: Oliver Wyman Wealth Management model Base Case Pre-Covid-19 estimate Bull Case Bear Case $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 201920202021202220232024 Note: Pre-Covid-19 estimate made based on inputs (GDP growth, asset performance, etc.。

    37、) retrieved at year-end 2019. Post-Covid-19 forecast based on inputs retrieved beginning of April 2020. Source: Oliver Wyman Wealth Management Model Our base case sees that growth will return, but from a lower base, supported by emerging markets While we expect growth will ultimately return, it will。

    38、 be from a lower base following a contraction in 2020. Our base case projects 5 per- cent annualized wealth growth for the next 5 years. This represents a marked decline from the 7 percent annual growth seen in the last five years, reflecting the significant impact of Covid-19. Exhibit 15: Global HN。

    39、W wealth by major region - base case (2018-2024, USD Trillion) 19-20E Growth 19-24E Growth North America-5%4% Western Europe-3%3% China-3%10% Other APAC-4%6% Middle East Hong Kong +852 2848-5999; Latin America +1 718 754-5444 (U.S.); London +44 (0)20-7425-8169; Singapore +65 6834-6860; Sydney +61 (0。

    40、)2-9770-1505; Tokyo +81 (0)3-6836-9000. Alternatively you may contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Research Management), New York, NY 10036 USA. Analyst Certification The following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies。

    41、 and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report: Michael J. Cyprys, CFA, CPA; Izabel Dobreva; Manan Gosalia; Betsy 。

    42、L. Graseck, CFA; Selvie Jusman, CFA; Nick Lord; Magdalena L Stoklosa, CFA; Ken A Zerbe, CFA; Irene Zhou, CFA. Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are research analysts. Global Research Conflict Management Policy Morgan Stanley Research has been published 。

    43、in accordance with our conflict management policy, which is available at A Portuguese version of the policy can be found at .br Important Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies The equity research analysts or strategists principally responsible for the preparation of Morgan Stanley Research hav。

    44、e received compensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors, firm revenues and overall investment banking revenues. Equity Research analysts or strategists compensation is not linked to investment banking or capital 。

    45、markets transactions performed by Morgan Stanley or the profitability or revenues of particular trading desks. Morgan Stanley and its affiliates do business that relates to companies/instruments covered in Morgan Stanley Research, including market making, providing liquidity, fund management, commer。

    46、cial banking, extension of credit, investment services and investment banking. Morgan Stanley sells to and buys from customers the securities/instruments of companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research on a principal basis. Morgan Stanley may have a position in the debt of the Company or instruments。

    47、 discussed in this report. Morgan Stanley trades or may trade as principal in the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that are the subject of the debt research report. Certain disclosures listed above are also for compliance with applicable regulations in non-US jurisdictions. STOCK RATINGS 。

    48、Morgan Stanley uses a relative rating system using terms such as Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated or Underweight (see definitions below). Morgan Stanley does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks we cover. Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated and Underweight are not the equivalent 。

    49、of buy, hold and sell. Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Morgan Stanley Research. In addition, since Morgan Stanley Research contains more complete information concerning the analysts views, investors should carefully read Morgan Stanley Research, in its entirety, and not infer the contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An inve。

    展开阅读全文
      三个皮匠报告文库所有资源均是用户自行上传分享,仅供网友学习交流,未经上传用户书面授权,请勿作他用。
    关于本文
    本文标题:2020年疫情后全球财富管理报告 - 摩根士丹利&奥纬咨询(英文版)(39页).pdf
    链接地址:https://www.sgpjbg.com/baogao/19783.html

    copyright@ 2008-2013        长沙景略智创信息技术有限公司版权所有
    经营许可证编号:湘ICP备17000430-2   增值电信业务经营许可证编号:湘B2-20190120


    备案图标.png湘公网安备 43010402000778号


    三个皮匠报告文库
    收起
    展开