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1、Wind Energy in Europe: Outlook to 2023 October 2019 windeurope.org windeurope.org October 2019 Wind Energy in Europe: Outlook to 2023 TEXT AND ANALYSIS: WindEurope Business Intelligence Daniel Fraile Ivan Komusanac EDITORS: Daniel Fraile, WindEurope Colin Walsh, WindEurope DESIGN: Marta Estudi PHOTO
2、 COVER: Jan Oelker ACKNOWLEDGMENTS WindEurope acknowledges the contributions of the following companies and industry associations for their input in the workshop organised on 29 May in Brussels: FEE (FR), VDMA (DE), AEE (ES), Svensk Vindenergi (SE), PSEW (PL), ANEV (IT), ABB, Associao Portuguesa de
3、Energias Renovaveis APREN, Acciona, BASF, Boralex, Brookfield, CLS Risk Solution, DNVGL, EDF renewables, EDP-R, Eneco, Enel, Enercon, Engie, E.ON, Equinor, ERG, GE, Iberdrola, Innogy, LM Wind Power, Nordex-Acciona, RES, RWEA, Schneider Electric, Senvion, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, Siemens Fina
4、ncial Services, Shell, Smulders, SSE, Vattenfall, Vestas, VWEA. WindEurope also acknowledges the kind cooperation of the following associations and institutions: Belgian Offshore Platform, Bulgarian Wind Energy Association, Obnovljivi izvori energije Hrvatske, Czech Wind Energy Association - CSVE, E
5、dora, Estonian Wind Power Association - EWPA, Finnish Wind Power Association (Suomen Tuulivoimayhdistys Ry), IG Windkraft, Irish Wind Energy Association IWEA, Global Wind Energy Council, Hellenic Wind Energy Association - ELETAEN, Elettricita Futura, Lithuanian Wind Power Association - LWPA, The Net
6、herlands Wind Energy Association - NWEA, Norwegian Wind Energy Association NORWEA, RenewableUK, Russian Wind Energy Association RAWI, Stiftung Offshore-Windenergie, Suisse Eole Swiss Wind Energy Association, Turkish Wind Energy Association TWEA, Ukrainian Wind Energy Association UWEA, Wind Denmark.
7、This publication, the third in a series of annual reports, analyses how European markets will develop in the next 5 years (2019 to 2023). The outlook is based on WindEurope internal analysis and consul- tation with its members (surveys with National Associations and dedicated workshop in May 2019).
8、DISCLAIMER This publication contains information collected on a regular basis throughout the year and then verified with relevant members of the industry ahead of publication. Neither WindEurope, nor its members, nor their related entities are, by means of this publication, rendering professional ad
9、vice or services. Neither WindEurope nor its members shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies on this publication. CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 6 1. POLICY CONTEXT repowering wind farms reaching the end of their operational life; removing barriers to Corporate
10、Renewable Power Purchase Agree- ments; and boosting the electrification of heating, transport and industry. National Governments have until the end of 2019 to finalise the Plans and ensure they become genuine investment brochures for renewables. The EU has now started its once-every-5-year process o
11、f “changing the guard”. The European Parliament elections in May were fairly positive for the wind industry. The Cen- tre-right, Social Democrats, Liberals and the Greens hold a commanding majority in the new Parliament, and in principle they support more ambitious Climate and Energy policies. The n
12、ew European Commission will take office in November with a firm commitment to the decarbonisation of the European economy. The President-elect of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has already committed to putting forward a green deal within her first 100 days in office. And EU Mem- ber
13、States, led by the Finnish presidency of the European Council, may commit by the end of the year to a net-zero carbon economy by 2050. On the ground, accelerating the permitting process for wind developers remains the top priority. In Germany the rate of new project permits has dropped significantly
14、, leading to undersubscribed onshore wind auctions and a collapse in installation rates. France still doesnt have a permitting authority to centralise all administrative processes. All around Europe, permitting is becoming more complex and more expensive as land becomes more constrained and the numb
15、er of legal appeals increases. The news is not all bad. In recent months weve seen in- creased ambition on wind from France, Ireland and Portugal, and from the new governments in Denmark and Finland, as well as regulatory progress in Italy. Spain remains very ambitious on renewables (although there
16、is political un- certainty with regards to the future of the government) Wind Energy in Europe: Outlook to 2023 WindEurope 11 Policy context Limited use of the latest available technology: the application file submitted to the permitting authority includes the wind turbine model(s). If the proposed
17、project is blocked in permitting limbo for years, developers will miss out on the latest features and designs, losing competitive advantage. In conclusion the project developer may need to file an application for a new permit in order to be able to use the latest wind turbine technology (additional
18、costs and time). In many countries the permits are issued for a determined period of time and may expire before getting the consent to start building; Banks are more likely to lend money for projects if the consenting risks are lower, or if there are financial mechanisms in place e.g. insurance to c
19、over the risk of being denied consent, or longer consenting periods than initially envisaged. 2. https:/windeurope.org/members-area/market-intelligence/ business-intelligence-reports/ 3. https:/www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/polls-reveal-citizens-support-energiewende 4. http:/www.climateaction.o
20、rg/news/85-of-the-uk-supports-renewable-energy-in-record-high-poll 12Wind Energy in Europe: Outlook to 2023 WindEurope Policy context projects without permits do not get built. Onshore ActivityTiming Phase Offshore Site conditioning, detailed design, procurement, fi nancial close. Construction and c
21、omissioning, grid connection. PRE-CONSTRUCTIONCONSTRUCTION Support allocation *Final investment decision DEVELOPMENT Environmental planning the same applies for 33% in Spain and 57% in Denmark. To put this into perspective, more than 16 GW of wind farms in Germany are over 15 years old, 3.2 GW of wh
22、ich are more than 20 years old. In Denmark, more than half of the wind fleet (around 2.4 GW) is more than 15 years old, while 31% of the fleet is over 20 years old. In the next decade there will be a considerable number of wind farms reaching their end-of-life. A strong market will be necessary, not
23、 just to replace the existing fleet, but to maintain the sustainable growth of the net installed capac- ity, progressively substituting fossil fuel-based generation. The case for repowering Many of the wind turbines installed in the 90s are of a few hundred kW and are under 60m in hub height. If rep
24、laced by taller and more powerful turbines, the increase in energy yields could be considerable. However, developers and manufacturers need to overcome obstacles to effectively repower existing sites. In some cases, repowering projects might be more cumbersome to develop than greenfield projects. En
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