欧洲风能协会：2023年欧洲风能展望报告（2019）（英文版）（40页）.pdf

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1、Wind Energy in Europe: Outlook to 2023 October 2019 windeurope.org windeurope.org October 2019 Wind Energy in Europe: Outlook to 2023 TEXT AND ANALYSIS: WindEurope Business Intelligence Daniel Fraile Ivan Komusanac EDITORS: Daniel Fraile, WindEurope Colin Walsh, WindEurope DESIGN: Marta Estudi PHOTO

2、 COVER: Jan Oelker ACKNOWLEDGMENTS WindEurope acknowledges the contributions of the following companies and industry associations for their input in the workshop organised on 29 May in Brussels: FEE (FR), VDMA (DE), AEE (ES), Svensk Vindenergi (SE), PSEW (PL), ANEV (IT), ABB, Associao Portuguesa de

3、Energias Renovaveis APREN, Acciona, BASF, Boralex, Brookfield, CLS Risk Solution, DNVGL, EDF renewables, EDP-R, Eneco, Enel, Enercon, Engie, E.ON, Equinor, ERG, GE, Iberdrola, Innogy, LM Wind Power, Nordex-Acciona, RES, RWEA, Schneider Electric, Senvion, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, Siemens Fina

4、ncial Services, Shell, Smulders, SSE, Vattenfall, Vestas, VWEA. WindEurope also acknowledges the kind cooperation of the following associations and institutions: Belgian Offshore Platform, Bulgarian Wind Energy Association, Obnovljivi izvori energije Hrvatske, Czech Wind Energy Association - CSVE, E

5、dora, Estonian Wind Power Association - EWPA, Finnish Wind Power Association (Suomen Tuulivoimayhdistys Ry), IG Windkraft, Irish Wind Energy Association IWEA, Global Wind Energy Council, Hellenic Wind Energy Association - ELETAEN, Elettricita Futura, Lithuanian Wind Power Association - LWPA, The Net

6、herlands Wind Energy Association - NWEA, Norwegian Wind Energy Association NORWEA, RenewableUK, Russian Wind Energy Association RAWI, Stiftung Offshore-Windenergie, Suisse Eole Swiss Wind Energy Association, Turkish Wind Energy Association TWEA, Ukrainian Wind Energy Association UWEA, Wind Denmark.

7、This publication, the third in a series of annual reports, analyses how European markets will develop in the next 5 years (2019 to 2023). The outlook is based on WindEurope internal analysis and consul- tation with its members (surveys with National Associations and dedicated workshop in May 2019).

8、DISCLAIMER This publication contains information collected on a regular basis throughout the year and then verified with relevant members of the industry ahead of publication. Neither WindEurope, nor its members, nor their related entities are, by means of this publication, rendering professional ad

9、vice or services. Neither WindEurope nor its members shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies on this publication. CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 6 1. POLICY CONTEXT repowering wind farms reaching the end of their operational life; removing barriers to Corporate

10、Renewable Power Purchase Agree- ments; and boosting the electrification of heating, transport and industry. National Governments have until the end of 2019 to finalise the Plans and ensure they become genuine investment brochures for renewables. The EU has now started its once-every-5-year process o

11、f “changing the guard”. The European Parliament elections in May were fairly positive for the wind industry. The Cen- tre-right, Social Democrats, Liberals and the Greens hold a commanding majority in the new Parliament, and in principle they support more ambitious Climate and Energy policies. The n

12、ew European Commission will take office in November with a firm commitment to the decarbonisation of the European economy. The President-elect of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has already committed to putting forward a green deal within her first 100 days in office. And EU Mem- ber

13、States, led by the Finnish presidency of the European Council, may commit by the end of the year to a net-zero carbon economy by 2050. On the ground, accelerating the permitting process for wind developers remains the top priority. In Germany the rate of new project permits has dropped significantly

14、, leading to undersubscribed onshore wind auctions and a collapse in installation rates. France still doesnt have a permitting authority to centralise all administrative processes. All around Europe, permitting is becoming more complex and more expensive as land becomes more constrained and the numb

15、er of legal appeals increases. The news is not all bad. In recent months weve seen in- creased ambition on wind from France, Ireland and Portugal, and from the new governments in Denmark and Finland, as well as regulatory progress in Italy. Spain remains very ambitious on renewables (although there

16、is political un- certainty with regards to the future of the government) Wind Energy in Europe: Outlook to 2023 WindEurope 11 Policy context Limited use of the latest available technology: the application file submitted to the permitting authority includes the wind turbine model(s). If the proposed

17、project is blocked in permitting limbo for years, developers will miss out on the latest features and designs, losing competitive advantage. In conclusion the project developer may need to file an application for a new permit in order to be able to use the latest wind turbine technology (additional

18、costs and time). In many countries the permits are issued for a determined period of time and may expire before getting the consent to start building; Banks are more likely to lend money for projects if the consenting risks are lower, or if there are financial mechanisms in place e.g. insurance to c

19、over the risk of being denied consent, or longer consenting periods than initially envisaged. 2. https:/windeurope.org/members-area/market-intelligence/ business-intelligence-reports/ 3. https:/www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/polls-reveal-citizens-support-energiewende 4. http:/www.climateaction.o

20、rg/news/85-of-the-uk-supports-renewable-energy-in-record-high-poll 12Wind Energy in Europe: Outlook to 2023 WindEurope Policy context projects without permits do not get built. Onshore ActivityTiming Phase Offshore Site conditioning, detailed design, procurement, fi nancial close. Construction and c

21、omissioning, grid connection. PRE-CONSTRUCTIONCONSTRUCTION Support allocation *Final investment decision DEVELOPMENT Environmental planning the same applies for 33% in Spain and 57% in Denmark. To put this into perspective, more than 16 GW of wind farms in Germany are over 15 years old, 3.2 GW of wh

22、ich are more than 20 years old. In Denmark, more than half of the wind fleet (around 2.4 GW) is more than 15 years old, while 31% of the fleet is over 20 years old. In the next decade there will be a considerable number of wind farms reaching their end-of-life. A strong market will be necessary, not

23、 just to replace the existing fleet, but to maintain the sustainable growth of the net installed capac- ity, progressively substituting fossil fuel-based generation. The case for repowering Many of the wind turbines installed in the 90s are of a few hundred kW and are under 60m in hub height. If rep

24、laced by taller and more powerful turbines, the increase in energy yields could be considerable. However, developers and manufacturers need to overcome obstacles to effectively repower existing sites. In some cases, repowering projects might be more cumbersome to develop than greenfield projects. En

25、vironmental regulation is much stricter today than it was 20-30 years ago. Regulations limiting the minimum distance between wind turbines and houses have also changed in recent years. These, and other aspects, lead to a complex permitting process that can delay repowering projects by several years.

26、 In Germany, around 40% of existing sites will not be eligible for repowering due to changes in regulation. That means that those sites will either have to opt for life-time extension measures or fully decommission the wind farm. According to the EU Renewable Energy Directive, permitting procedures

27、for repowered installations will be simplified, with shorter deadlines for swifter build-out. Under the new European legislation, the permitting process for repowering projects should be completed within 2 years. As of today, Member States have not yet put forward clear actions in their National Ene

28、rgy and Climate Plans to simplify the process for repowering projects. Wind Energy in Europe: Outlook to 2023 WindEurope 17 THE NUMBER OF TURBINES DECREASES BY A THIRD, BUT THE WIND FARM CAPACITY INCREASES BY A FACTOR OF 2.23 Repowering trends The analysis of more than 60 repowering projects in Euro

29、pe has shown a number of interesting trends. Projects are repowered at very different points in their lifetime, ranging from just 9 to 27 years. The late repowering projects were mostly in Spain where, on average, projects operate for 22 years before being repowered. In Germany the repowering of pro

30、jects took place (on average) after 16 years because of the repowering bonus of 5 EUR/MWh that was in place until 2014, incentivising wind farm operators to repower their projects earlier. Other observations of repowering projects were that, on average: The number of turbines decreases by a third; T

31、he wind farm capacity more than doubles (by a factor of 2.23). The power rating of the newer turbines is four times larger than the decommissioned turbines. There was a decrease in wind farm capacity in only five such projects. Policy context So far, Sweden has installed 459 MW. We are expecting ove

32、r 2 GW there. And Norway hasnt installed a single turbine, while we are expecting close to 1 GW there by the end of the year. It is typical to see significantly higher installations in the second half of the year, in particular because summer months offer better weather conditions for the commission

33、ing of wind turbines. Turbine orders and activity on the ground suggest this trend will be even more pronounced than normal this year. Installations were particularly poor in Germany, which had its worst H1 of any year since 2000. In 2019 Germany will face its worst year for onshore wind installatio

34、ns this millennium, due to permitting issues and poorly designed auctions. In combination with the difficulties in Germany, delays in Spain, Sweden and Norway could lead to significantly lower onshore volumes at the end of the year. OFFSHORE WILL REPRESENT 20% OF INSTALLATIONS IN THE NEXT 5 YEARS 8.

35、 Onshore wind installations in the first half of the year are typically around a third of all the onshore capacity installed within a year. Regarding the offshore market, we expect installations to peak in 2019 given the large number of projects under con- struction in the UK and Germany. 1.9 GW of

36、new offshore wind was installed in the first half of the year, up from the 1.1 GW added in the same period in 2018. The UK (931 MW), Denmark (374 MW), Belgium (370 MW) and Germany (252 MW) accounted for these installations. This includes Hornsea 1 in the UK which, when completed, will be the worlds

37、largest wind farm with 1.2 GW. Post-2020 outlook Overall, installations in 2020 should slightly decrease but remain relatively high compared to historical levels. Due to strong increases in expected installations in Italy and Germa- ny, 2022 could be another record year, followed by an even stronger

38、 2023. In 2023 we expect to see strong activity in the offshore sector in the Netherlands, Ireland, Norway and France. However, uncertainty towards the end of the 5-year period is quite high, particularly in onshore, and we could witness a stagnation of installations if national authorities do not t

39、ackle spatial planning and permitting issues in an efficient and comprehensive manner. Cumulative capacity by 2023 With between 254 and 299 GW of cumulative capacity across Europe by 2023, Germany will remain the country with the most capacity installed (between 68-77 GW). Spain will come second, wi

40、th 30-35 GW. We expect a significant amount of capacity to be decommis- sioned in the coming years (between 3.9 and 4.8 GW over the next 5 years). Some of it will be repowered and some will be fully decommissioned. This will mostly occur in Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Italy. By 2023

41、, offshore would represent around 13% of the total installed capacity. Mid-term outlook Wind Energy in Europe: Outlook to 2023 WindEurope 21 2.2. CENTRAL SCENARIO WindEuropes Central Scenario provides a best estimate of the installed capacity in Europe in the next 5 years. This sce- nario takes into

42、 account the pipeline of wind energy projects and the ongoing legislation in European countries that could enable the deployment of volumes. In addition, it reflects the impact of the 2020 targets, the existence of longer-term national targets and the calendar for auctions. For offshore wind, the Ce

43、ntral Scenario assumes that all projects are built according to their currently-projected timeline. In Spain, Norway and Sweden, the latest information on fi- nanced capacity and ordered capacity of wind turbines are providing a clear outlook in the short term. Developers in Spain had a tight deadli

44、ne to meet (2019) for those projects awarded in the 2016 and 2017 auctions (4.5 GW). Less than half of it will happen in 2019 as the government 2019 A STRONG YEAR WITH 16.8 GW OF WIND INSTALLATIONS extended the deadline until 2020. The government set those deadlines to help Spain meet its 2020 renew

45、able energy target. In Sweden, with an additional 18 TWh of wind target by 2040, new green certificates have been injected in the market. Developers are rushing to obtain this market support and we expect 2019 to be a record year for installations in Sweden. FIGURE 6 Gross annual and cumulative inst

46、allations in Europe - WindEuropes Central Scenario 201320142015201620172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 5 10 15 20 25 Cumulative capacity (GW) Annual installations (GW) OnshoreOffshoreCumulative 1.51.53.01.63.22.73.42.52.83.26.3 Onshore11.011.610.912.313.99.013.415.214.214.71

47、4.5 122136148162178189207223240257277 Source: WindEurope Mid-term outlook 22Wind Energy in Europe: Outlook to 2023 WindEurope The planned tenders and the results of previous auctions and tenders in Germany, France and the Netherlands provide good visibility on post-2020 market development. In German

48、y permitting and public acceptance are one the main reasons for slower market activity. The poorly-designed auctions that favoured citizens projects (projects without construction permits could bid) also have a negative effect on installations in 2019. In spite of the German Climate Cabinet decision

49、 to increase tendering volumes for wind, the conclu- sions on setback distances in principle 1000m will present a further challenge for the recovery of the German market. In France the government is setting up a new permitting au- thority to overcome the uncertainty that has caused challenges in the countrys consenting system. FIGURE 7 Annual gross installations per country - WindEuropes Central Scenario In Turkey the depreciation of the Turkis